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04 December 2024

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SSI Surveillance: Poultry Mid-Weekly (04 December 2024)

  • In 22 – 29 Nov 2024, avg. broiler price rose to ~IDR 20,928/kg (+0.9% WoW/+0.4% MoM/+11.7 YTD), while avg. DOC price declined -3.6% WoW to IDR 6,750. Broiler continued to benefit from higher consumption due to year-end seasonality, and DOC saw an uptick in demand from suppliers looking to benefit from the government's free-lunch program.
  • For raw materials, domestic corn prices increased slightly (+0.9% WoW), as did SBM prices (+0.9% WoW). SBM averaged at USD 294/t, with YTD average of USD 338/t (YTD: -24.4%), on the back of softer demand, high crushing rates for soybean-derived products, and larger-than-anticipated soybean harvests in northern US, which led to high stockpiles.
  • Looking ahead, we anticipate positive margins across all segments from poultry players in 4Q24. In the sector, JPFA and MAIN appear to have the most attractive valuations, particularly on performance support as we expect voluntary culling and favorable government policies, including the free lunch program, June-24 reduced price relaxation, and 2024 lower GPS import quotas onwards.

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