Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

28 February 2023

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Samuel’s Daily Economic & Fixed Income Report

MARKET PREVIEW

  • Pasar keuangan Asia Pasifik memulai pagi ini dengan rebound setelah dalam di sesi sebelumnya turun tajam karena pasar masih akan melihat stance hawkish dari The Fed yang menilai inflasi masih di level yang tinggi dan pasar tenaga kerja masih sangat ketat.
  • Dari perkembangan data di AS dilaporkan bahwa pemesanan barang-barang tahan lama tekontraksi di bulan Januari akibat normalisasi efek musiman di akhir tahun lalu. Di lain sisi, statement pejabat The Fed, Gubernur P Jefferson yang menyatakan bahwa inflasi masih jauh dari target dan tidak akan turun dengan cepat semakin menambah keyakinan bahwa The Fed akan terus mempertahankan kebijakan moneter ketatnya di tahun ini.
  • Kendati demikian, Imbal hasil UST 10Y turun tipis sebanyak 2bps ke level 3.92% dimana pelaku pasar sudah memfaktorisasi terminal rate yang lebih tinggi dari perkiraan sebelumnya.
  • Karenanya, kami melihat aksi jual akan tertahan di pasar domestic, dimana pasar akan kembali melihat perkembangan data makro dalam negeri yang masih solid. Imbal hasil SUN 10Y berpotensi bergerak ke arah 6.84% hari ini dengan Rupiah dapat menyentuh 15.250/USD di tengah bayang-bayang ketidakpastian eksternal. 

RILIS DATA / KEBIJAKAN

BPS: Ada empat komoditas berpotensi menjadi penyumbang utama inflasi Februari. Kepala Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) melaporkan bahwa dari hasil pemantauan, empat komoditas yang berpotensi menyumbang inflasi pada Februari adalah beras, bawang merah, cabai merah, dan minyak goring. Khusus untuk beras, BPS melihat ada kenaikan harga di sekitar 149 kabupaten/kota. Penting dicatat bahwa BPS akan mengumumkan angka inflasi Februari pada esok hari (Investor Daily) Comment: Kami setuju dengan hasil pemantauan dari BPS dimana dari pantauan kami, beras tercatat naik 2.3% MoM, cabai merah dan cabai rawit naik masing 15% MoM dan 12% MoM. Distribusi yang terganggu di tengah masih intensnya curah hujan serta persiapan jelang bulan puasa di pertengahan Maret nanti membuat beberapa harga komoditas naik. Namun demikian, kami melihat komponen inflasi lain seperti tariff transportasi udara serta emas mengalami penurunan. Oleh karena itu, kami memprediksi inflasi bulan Februari 2023 masih akan dalam tren yang melandai dimana  naik ke level 0.20% MoM (Januari: 0.34% MoM) dengan level YoY akan sedikit naik ke 5.51% (Januari: 5.28% YoY). Dengan tekanan harga yang masih terjaga, kami melihat BI masih punya cukup ruang untuk mempertahankan bunga acuannya di level 5.75% pada RDG bulan Maret nanti di tengah tekanan dari factor eksternal yang mengganggu stabilitas Rupiah saat ini.

GLOBAL ECON

Pending home sales AS tumbuh pesat pada Januari sebesar 8.1% mom (prev: 1.1% mom). Akan tetapi, secara tahunan indeks penjualan rumah yang proses transaksinya belum selesai ini turun -24.1% yoy. (NAR) Comment: Kenaikan penjualan rumah yang transaksinya masih belum selesai disebabkan oleh mulai melambatnya kenaikan suku bunga Fed yang berpengaruh positif terhadap suku bunga hipotek. Akan tetapi, kondisi ini bisa kembali memburuk akibat dari naiknya probabilita kenaikan suku bunga 50 bps pada bulan Maret mendatang.

Sentimen pebisnis di zona Euro turun tipis pada Februari menjadi 99.7 (prev: 99.8). Hal ini disebabkan oleh penurunan sentimen di sektor manufaktur menjadi 0.5 (prev: 1.2) dan sektor jasa menjadi 9.5 (prev: 10.4). (DW) Comment: Rilis data ini mengkonfirmasi kondisi perekonomian di zona Euro yang tengah berada di ambang resesi. Menurut kami, kondisi di zona Euro belum akan membaik hingga ada penurunan inflasi yang signifikan.

BUY Recommendation: FR0081, FR0047, FR0073, FR0037, FR0088, FR0054.

 

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 28 Februari 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 28 Februari 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 28 Februari 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 28 Februari 2023 (Eng)

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