Research & Stock Picks

Economic Reports

28 September 2025

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Samuel Weekly Economic Insights 29 September 2025

Highlights

  • Proyeksi Pertumbuhan Solid: Bank Indonesia memproyeksikan pertumbuhan PDB 2025 di kisaran 4.6–5.1%, didukung oleh ekspor sumber daya dan manufaktur hilir, meskipun konsumsi domestik masih lemah.

 

  • Ekspansi Fiskal dalam APBN 2026: Pemerintah menetapkan belanja sebesar IDR 3,840 triliun dengan defisit 2.68% terhadap PDB, dengan prioritas di sektor infrastruktur, perlindungan sosial, pembangunan Nusantara, dan implementasi biodiesel B50.

 

  • Sektor Eksternal Tangguh: Indonesia membukukan surplus perdagangan bulanan ke-63 berturut-turut pada Agustus 2025 (USD 5.3bn), didorong oleh ekspor nikel dan tembaga yang mengimbangi lemahnya permintaan komoditas global.

 

  • Volatilitas Pasar Keuangan: IHSG terkonsolidasi di sekitar 8,000, yield obligasi naik, dan aliran portofolio asing berfluktuasi, mencerminkan ketidakpastian global namun juga kepercayaan terhadap aset Indonesia.

 

  • Risiko & Peluang Kebijakan: Penurunan harga komoditas, batasan cukai, dan kesenjangan basis pajak menjadi risiko fiskal, namun momentum investasi yang kuat di sektor digital dan hijau memperkuat daya tarik jangka panjang Indonesia.

 

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