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Economic Reports

10 February 2025

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Samuel Weekly Economic Insights 10 February 2025

Highlights

  • Stable Growth Amid Global Uncertainties: Indonesia’s economy grew by 5.03% in 2024, driven by manufacturing and strong post-election policy stability. However, sluggish consumption and weak global demand challenge the government's 8% growth target.

 

  • Inflation Hits 24-Year Low: January’s inflation rate dropped to 0.76% YoY, raising concerns about deflation and weak demand. While beneficial for households, it reflects underlying economic vulnerabilities.

 

  • Geopolitical Risks Impacting Markets: Trump’s proposed tariffs on major economies could disrupt global trade, strengthen the USD, and trigger capital outflows, putting pressure on the IDR (potentially testing IDR 16,500/USD).

 

  • Major Structural Reforms: The establishment of Danantara Superholding to manage USD 600 billion in state assets reflects Indonesia’s push for efficiency, but governance and transparency risks persist. Meanwhile, FDI surged 20.8% YoY in 2024, signaling investor confidence.

 

  • Green Economy & Climate Uncertainty: Indonesia secured USD 32.3 billion in energy investments, focusing on renewables, but faces mixed signals on its Paris Agreement commitment and growing environmental concerns over deforestation and large infrastructure projects.

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