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Economic Reports

03 November 2024

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Samuel Monthly Economic Insight 4 November 2024

Highlights

  • Target Ekonomi Transformatif di Tengah Melambatnya Permintaan: Pemerintahan Prabowo Subianto menargetkan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang cukup ambisium sebesar 8%, dengan fokus pada infrastruktur, ketahanan pangan, transformasi digital, dan inisiatif ekonomi hijau. Namun, penurunan inflasi menjadi 1.71%—terendah dalam tiga tahun—mengindikasikan melemahnya permintaan konsumen, yang berpotensi menghambat pencapaian target pertumbuhan dan menunjukkan perlunya stimulus di sektor-sektor penting.

 

  • Tertekannya Sektor Manufaktur di Tengah Ketegangan Global: PMI sektor manufaktur stagnan di angka 49.2, yang mengindikasikan kontraksi untuk bulan keempat secara beruntun. Penurunan output, lapangan kerja, dan penjualan ekspor—yang didorong oleh ketegangan geopolitik dan penurunan permintaan—menunjukkan perlunya strategi ekspor yang beragam dan dukungan sektoral untuk merevitalisasi sektor manufaktur.

 

  • Struktur Kabinet yang Besar untuk Menangani Isu-isu Kompleks: Kabinet Prabowo yang besar dengan 48 kementerian akan berfokus pada area-area spesifik seperti ketahanan pangan, kesejahteraan publik, dan pengembangan generasi muda, sembari meningkatkan nklusivitas politik demi menjalin stabilitas. Meskipun struktur ini meningkatkan keterwakilan berbagai pihak, hal ini menimbulkan kekhawatiran tentang potensi inefisiensi birokrasi dan lambatnya pengambilan keputusan.

 

  • Ekonomi Digital dan Investasi AI: Platform INA Digital dan investasi dalam AI membuktikan ambisi transformasi digital Indonesia, dengan proyeksi pertumbuhan PDB sebesar USD 366 miliar pada tahun 2030. Pengembangan perbankan digital dan regulasi untuk mengekang e-commerce asing mencerminkan komitmen Indonesia terhadap ekonomi digital yang kuat dan digerakkan secara lokal.
  • Komitmen Lingkungan dan Posisi Indonesia di Pasar Nikel: Usaha Indonesia terkait pengembangan energi terbarukan mencakup kemitraan dalam hidrogen hijau dan tenaga panas bumi, meskipun kerangka keuangan hijau Indonesia menghadapi kritik karena dianggap longgar terkait klasifikasi batu bara. Dengan proyeksi kendali 75% atas pasar nikel global pada 2026, Indonesia menghadapi tekanan untuk menyeimbangkan faktor ekonomi dengan tanggung jawab ekologis, terutama dengan komitmen iklim internasional.

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