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Economic & Fixed Income

25 September 2023

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Rilis data PMI AS indikasikan perlambatan ekonomi menuju resesi

Melambatnya aktivitas ekonomi di AS, terutama di sektor jasa yang berada pada level 50.2 pada bulan September, memupuk asa di kalangan investor global atas kemungkinan terjadinya kontraksi ekonomi di 4Q23 (lihat global economic news). Apabila resesi terjadi di periode 4Q23 dan 1Q24, maka The Fed tidak mempunyai alasan untuk menaikkan suku bunga 1X25 bps menjadi 5.75% di 4Q23. Kondisi ini tercermin dari probabilita kenaikan suku bunga Fed di bulan November (26%) dan Desember (36%) yang rendah. Merespon situasi ini, investor melakukan aksi beli di pasar obligasi global yang mendorong naik indeks obligasi S&P untuk developed market 0.1% dan menurunkan yield 10Y UST sebesar -6 bps menjadi 4.43%. Kami melihat hal ini sebagai katalis positif yang dapat mendorong aksi beli di pasar SBN yang tampaknya akan mengalami bottoming di sekitar 6.8%. Kami memperkirakan yield 10Y INDOGB akan turun menuju rentang 6.65-6.75% hari ini yang diikuti oleh mengendurnya tekanan depresiasi Rupiah ke rentang IDR 15,300-15,400 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Jumlah permintaan maupun penerbitan SRBI baru turun pada lelang (22/9). Jumlah penawaran masuk lelang SRBI (22/9) turun menjadi IDR 15.9tn (15/9: IDR 29.9tn). Akibatnya, jumlah penerbitan SRBI baru juga menurun menjadi IDR 15tn (15/9: IDR 24.5tn). Meskipun demikian, tingkat permintaan dan penawaran pada lelang (22/9) masih lebih tinggi daripada lelang (20/9). Total SRBI yang beredar saat ini mencapai IDR 52.7tn melampaui nilai SPN dan SPNS yang beredar (IDR 43.3tn). (Bank Indonesia)

Global Economic News: PMI Eropa mengindikasikan resesi masih berlanjut, PMI AS terus melambat di bulan September. Hal ini tercermin dari PMI manufaktur di Amerika Serikat (Act: 48.9; Aug: 47.9; Cons: 48), zona Euro (Act: 43.4; Aug: 43.5; Cons: 44) dan Britania Raya (Act: 44.2; Aug: & Cons: 43) yang berada di zona kontraksi (<50). PMI jasa zona Euro (Act: 48.4; Aug: 47.9; Cons: 47.7) dan Britania Raya (Act: 47.2; Aug: 49.5; Cons: 49.2) juga berada di zona kontraksi. Akan tetapi, PMI jasa AS masih berada di zona ekspansi (Act: 50.2; Aug: 50.5; Cons: 50.6). Hal ini membuka peluang terjadinya kontraksi ekonomi di AS yang bisa membuat Federal Reserve membatalkan rencana kenaikan suku bunga 1X25 bps menjadi 5.75% pada 4Q23. (Investing)

Domestic Economic News: DPR sahkan RAPBN menjadi APBN 2024. Pengesahan tersebut dilakukan pada rapat paripurna Kamis lalu (21/9). APBN 2024 menargetkan pendapatan negara IDR 2,802.3tn dengan pendapatan pajak senilai IDR 2,309.9tn serta belanja negara IDR 3,3251.4tn dengan belanja pemerintah pusat IDR 2,467.5tn. Target defisit APBN 2024 tidak berubah di IDR (-522.8)tn atau -2.29% terhadap PDB.

Recommendation: FR0040, FR0050, FR0068, FR0095, FR0097, FR0098, FR0100.

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Highlights

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 25 September 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 25 September 2023 (Ind)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 25 September 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 25 September 2023 (Ind)

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