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Daily Report

10 November 2023

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Pidato Powell di IMF picu penjualan saham di AS

• Pidato hawkish Powell picu aksi jual di pasar saham AS.
• Kami melihat pidato ini sebagai upaya The Fed untuk menjaga kondisi pasar finansial tetap restriktif terutama melalui kenaikan yield 30Y UST.
• Kami melihat potensi gejolak pasar pada pengumuman inflasi Oktober hari Selasa depan karena ada peluang kenaikan laju inflasi bulanan.
Chairman Federal Reserve Jerome Powell mengeluarkan pidato bernada hawkish dalam acara IMF tadi malam. Dalam pidato tersebut, Powell menyatakan bahwa para pejabat The Fed merasa tidak yakin atas efek restriktif dari kebijakan moneter terhadap target inflasi saat ini. Hal ini memicu aksi jual tidak hanya di pasar obligasi global tetapi juga di pasar saham AS yang indeks-indeksnya turun di rentang -0.6% hingga -0.9% semalam (9/11).
Menurut kami, pernyataan Powell dapat berdampak negatif terhadap IHSG. Akan tetapi, menurut kami pergerakan IHSG akan cenderung sideways di rentang 6,600-6,900 dengan potensi bisa mencapai 7,000 pada akhir tahun karena masih adanya efek positif dari windfall commodity tahun lalu. Selain itu, pergerakan IHSG masih lebih atraktif dengan penurunan -0.2% YTD dibandingkan dengan MSCI Asia kecuali Jepang yang sudah turun -2.3% YTD.
Kami memperkirakan pidato Powell berpotensi menimbulkan fluktuasi pasar saat pengumuman data inflasi CPI AS di bulan Oktober hari Selasa depan (14/11). Saat ini pelaku pasar di AS khawatir terhadap kemungkinan laju inflasi bulanan inflasi inti CPI AS naik menjadi 0.4% mom (Sep: 0.3% mom). Apabila hal ini terjadi, maka pergerakan saham berpotensi bergolak tajam.
Secara fundamental, kami melihat pidato Powell sebagai upaya dari The Fed untuk tetap menjaga kondisi di pasar keuangan AS tetap restriktif melalui mekanisme pasar, terutama kenaikan yield 30Y UST yang menjadi indikator utama bagi suku bunga perbankan AS. Pasar sepertinya juga menyadari hal ini, yang terlihat dari probabilita The Fed tetap mempertahankan suku bunga FFR di 5.5% pada bulan Desember sebesar 85%.
Kami berkesempatan menghadiri debat Pemilu 2024 yang dihadiri perwakilan tim sukses masing-masing capres-cawapres yang diselenggarakan dalam acara Fund Award kemarin. Kami mendapatkan gambaran yang cukup baik atas kesiapan dari masing-masing tim capres untuk menghadapi pemilu 2024 baik dari sisi substansi kebijakan maupun kemampuan problem solving menjawab tantangan sektoral di pasar keuangan. Silahkan hubungi kami untuk mendapatkan face-to-face briefing.
Sector Recommendation: Food retailers, cigarettes, telco infrastructures, hospitals.

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Samuel's Global Macro Strategy Morning Notes 10 November 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Global Macro Strategy Morning Notes 10 November 2023 (Ind)

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Samuel's Global Macro Strategy Morning Notes 10 November 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Global Macro Strategy Morning Notes 10 November 2023 (Ind)

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