Potential 8th Reshuffle on/or Prior to 20th October? On 1 Oct-26, President Prabowo swore in 15 officials in his seventh reshuffle since Oct-24, second major one in less than three weeks (Figure 19). Key change is new Coordinating Ministry for Downstreaming and Energy Transition under Bahlil Lahadalia, who stays on as Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM). Other key moves: Sugiono to Coordinating Minister for Human Development and Culture, Dudung Abdurachman to Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs, Listyo Sigit Prabowo to Presidential Chief of Staff, and Golkar's Muhammad Sarmuji to Industry Minister. New Presidential Advisory Council (Wantimpres) followed on 2 Oct-26 (Figure 20). Looking ahead, market rumors are rife that Indonesia will have another cabinet reshuffle on or before 20th of October, coinciding with Prabowo’s second year in office. Foreign Selling Accelerates Ahead of MSCI Verdict; Retail Players Now Majority Holder. Foreign investors sold IDR8.8tn (USD489mn) of equities in Sep-26, lifting YTD-26 outflow to IDR111.5tn (USD6.2bn), partly on FTSE and GDX rebalancing. Selling was led by Financials (IDR4.2tn), with BMRI (Bank Mandiri), BBCA (Bank Central Asia), TLKM (Telkom Indonesia) and ISAT (Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison) among top sells, while ANTM (Aneka Tambang) and AADI (Adaro Andalan Indonesia) led buying. As foreigners exited, retail ownership rose to 21.7% (Figure 18), highest since MSCI sell-off.  Bond market showed signs of recovery, with government bond flows reversing from outflow of IDR 0.3tn in Sep-26 to inflow of IDR 5.5tn in Oct-26 (Figure 16), while 10Y yield rose 12bps MoM to 7.2%. We expect equity outflow to persist ahead of MSCI's Nov-26 verdict. MSCI kept Indonesia in Emerging Markets (EM) in Jun-26 but left Frontier option open, while Aug-26 review continued FIF (Foreign Inclusion Factor) cuts, now reaching blue chips. Indonesia's MSCI EM weight has fallen to c.0.43% in Sep-26 from c.1.13% in Jan-26, and flows are unlikely to turn until MSCI sees consistent reform implementation. Data Center: Bright Spot Amid Foreign Selling. Data center is now the market's most talked-about theme, and our recent meetings with companies along their value chains show demand is real and already visible in numbers. POWR (Cikarang Listrindo) contracted data center load reached 274MVA in Jun-26 (+23% YoY), and management raised its 2027F target 21% to 385MVA. TOTL (Total Bangun Persada) has over 400MW under construction, including Microsoft's 200MW campus, backed by IDR6.65tn backlog (both NOT RATED). At industry level, Indonesia's data center capacity could reach c.1.5-1.8GW in 5-7 years from c.520MW in 2025F, supported by data sovereignty rules, digital economy growth and lower power cost than in its regional peers. Planned National Artificial Intelligence (AI) Roadmap and Green Super Grid could ease permitting and power hurdles. Other beneficiaries: ADRO (Alamtri Resources Indonesia), MEDC (Medco Energi Internasional), DMAS (Puradelta Lestari), SSIA (Surya Semesta Internusa), and TLKM (via NeutraDC).

2027 Outlook: JCI Target 7,000; Stay with Dollar Earners. We set our base case 2027 JCI target at 7,000, implying 17.9% upside from 5,936 close on 12 Oct-26. Valuation is attractive: based on Exhibit 2, JCI trades at 10.4x P/E (excluding liquidity driven stocks: 11.9x)  vs. 5Y average of 18.1x and 1.6x P/B (5Y avg: 2.1x). Cheap valuation alone, however, is not sufficient to lure back foreign investors. Five main external remain: 1) MSCI, where foreign inflow could resume once freeze on Indonesia is lifted, 2) Geopolitical risks creating high energy prices, 3) Strong USD, 4) Higher UST yields, 5) Higher for longer interest rates. Until all five are clear, we stay with dollar earners, supported by mining policies (no royalty hike, gross-split scheme and sole supplier status) and higher RKAB (Work Plan and Budget) quotas in 2H26. Samuel’s top picks (Figure 1): ANTM (our core gold play), AMMN (offering copper-gold dollar earnings), BUMI (leveraged exposure to USD-linked coal prices), BWPT (higher CPO prices on Godzilla El-Nino), and TINS (strong sales volumes). On the domestic side, we see the following key investment risks: wider budget, larger current account deficits, increased BI rates, policy uncertainties, and potential higher political tension.