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[20/9/2026, 12:32:39 PM] neville kurniawan: Read more
[20/9/2026, 12:38:22 PM] Sir Harry: ■ *Global monetary conditions turned more restrictive:* The Federal Reserve unanimously raised the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike since 2023, while signaling that further tightening remains possible. A prolonged high-rate environment could further tighten global liquidity, pressure emerging-market currencies and weaken risk appetite.
■ *Indonesia’s fiscal buffer could see erosion:* State revenue growth of 25.4% YoY continued to outpace expenditure growth of 17.1% through August, keeping the deficit at 0.93% of GDP. However, persistently high energy prices, subsidy needs and rising funding costs could increasingly constrain fiscal flexibility.
■ *Financial markets remain exposed to worsening external conditions:* The IDR continues to face pressure from higher US rates, elevated global yields and oil prices above USD100/bbl, particularly with the European conflicts flaring up. While government bond demand and foreign inflows provide some support, these buffers could weaken quickly if global risk aversion intensifies or capital flows reverse.
■ *Energy risks are becoming larger macroeconomic drag:* On the back recent European frictions, sustained high oil prices will widen Indonesia’s import bill, pressure the current account and increase the fiscal burden from fuel subsidies. Efforts to expand bioethanol, overseas oil investment and strategic commodity development are unlikely to provide an immediate offset.
■ *Institutional and governance concerns remain an additional source of uncertainty:* Issues surrounding social-assistance targeting, corruption investigations, consumer protection, electoral-system debates and capital-market enforcement could weigh on policy credibility and investor confidence if implementation remains inconsistent.
■ *Digital-economy consolidation could increase competitive and regulatory pressure:* Grab’s proposed acquisition of 60% of Atome Financial points to further industry concentration, while tighter rules on data use, children’s online protection and e-waste could raise compliance costs and pressure margins across the sector.
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