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27 August 2024

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PGAS: 2Q24 Results – BUY, TP at IDR 1,800

Strength

Robust 1H24 revenue growth driven by gas transmission revenue of USD 134 million (+10.8% YoY) and LNG trading revenue of USD 94 million; NPM increased to 10.1% (+200 bps YoY) due to higher GPM of 22.1% (+150 bps YoY), attributable to lower gas cost of USD 5.3/mmbtu (-5% YoY)

 

Weakness

Increased HGBT gas sales led to lower 2Q24 gas trading ASP of USD 7.5/mmbtu (+5.5% YoY, -6.2% QoQ), resulting in QoQ revenue decline; 2Q24 G&A expenses surged to USD 74.9 million (+65.8% QoQ), causing EBIT margin to fall to 14% (-380 bps QoQ)

 

Opportunity

LNG trading is expected to boost PGAS’ revenue growth, driven by 5-year extension of its LNG MSA contracts and the expansion of cargo operations; favorable gas purchase agreements with MEDC are expected to lower costs in upcoming quarters

 

Threat

The expansion of PGAS' HGBT gas distribution scope to 13 industries (up from 11) is projected to generate zero margins, which could negatively impact earnings; 2Q relatively weak result may cause further market underperformance

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Results PGAS 2Q24

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Results PGAS 2Q24

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