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Daily Report

31 May 2023

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Pelemahan ekonomi Eropa = bullish rally pasar obligasi global

Momentum bullish di pasar obligasi global menguat tadi malam (31/5) ditopang oleh rilis survei bisnis dan konsumen Eropa yang melemah dan berlawanan dengan ekspektasi pasar (lihat global economic news) serta ekspektasi positif atas voting usulan plafon utang pemerintah Amerika Serikat malam ini. Bullish rally terjadi di pasar obligasi negara-negara maju maupun berkembang, seperti yang tercermin pada peningkatan indeks obligasi S&P dan EMBI masing-masing sebesar 0.5% dan 0.8%. Imbal hasil (yield) UST dan BUND 10-tahun menurun masing-masing sebesar -11 dan -9 bps menjadi 3.69% dan 2.34%. Momentum positif ini diikut dengan aksi jual di pasar komoditas yang tercermin dari penurunan indeks S&P-Goldman Sachs sebesar -2.4%. Kami memperkirakan pasar obligasi Asia, termasuk Indonesia akan terdampak positif hari ini. Kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10-tahun akan turun ke rentang 6.3-6.4% hari ini, yang diikuti apresiasi Rupiah ke rentang IDR 14,850-14,950 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Pefindo turunkan peringkat kredit WIKA dan seluruh obligasinya menjadi “(id)BBB” dengan outlook negatif (Prev: “(id)A” dengan outlook stabil). Daftar obligasi PT Wijaya Karya (WIKA) yang diturunkan peringkatnya oleh PT Pemeringkat Efek Indonesia (Pefindo) adalah Obligasi Berkelanjutan I, II, dan III serta Sukuk Mudharabah I, II, dan III. Keputusan ini diambil dengan mempertimbangkan tingkat utang WIKA yang agresif serta masalah arus kas yang dihadapi untuk melunasi utang jangka pendek yang akan jatuh tempo. (Pefindo)

Global Economic News: Sentimen bisnis dan konsumen di zona Euro melemah di bulan Mei menjadi 96.5 (Apr: 99; Cons May: 99.9). Pelemahan sentiment secara umum ini juga diikuti dengan pelemahan sentimen pada sektor industri menjadi -5.2 (Apr: -2.8; Cons May: 0.1) serta sektor jasa menjadi 7 (Apr: 9.9; Cons May: 9.4). Investor khawatir pelemahan ini mengindikasikan potensi resesi yang semakin besar di zona Euro. Menurut kami, kondisi ini berpotensi mendorong Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) untuk menyetop siklus kenaikan suku bunga dalam waktu dekat sesuai pernyataan salah satu pejabat ECB sebelumnya. (Reuters)

Domestic Economic News: Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani sarankan Bank Indonesia untuk tidak lagi menaikkan suku bunga. Saran tersebut dinyatakan dalam rapat dengan Badan Anggaran DPR, yang berbunyi “Pak Gubernur tidak perlu menaikkan suku bunga yang bisa mematikan ekonomi, karena kita sudah melakukan pengendalian inflasi bersama-sama…”. Menurut kami, BI tetap akan mempertahankan suku bunga 7DRRR di 5.75%, meskipun the Fed berpotensi menaikkan suku bunga acuannya 25 bps menjadi 5.5% di bulan Juni. (CNBC Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0098, FR0050, FR0079, FR0081, FR0040, FR0084, FR0086, PBS017.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 31 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 31 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 31 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 31 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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