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Daily Report

18 September 2023

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Pasar SBN tertekan shifting ke SRBI serta kekhawatiran atas kenaikan harga minyak global

Antusiasme investor fixed income yang tinggi terhadap lelang SRBI mendorong aksi jual di pasar obligasi domestik, yang tercermin dari penurunan indeks ICBI (-0.1%) serta kenaikan yield INDOGB 10Y (5 bps menjadi 6.69%), 5Y (4 bps menjadi 6.34%), 2Y (2 bps menjadi 6.34%), dan INDON 10Y (3 bps menjadi 5.6%). Kami memprediksi perpindahan dana dari pasar SBN ke SRBI masih akan terjadi minggu ini didorong oleh lelang SRBI hari Rabu (20/9). Selain faktor SRBI, kami juga melihat tekanan jual dari pasar global. Walaupun ekspektasi pasar secara umum terhadap potensi kenaikan suku bunga The Fed turun akibat lemahnya sentimen konsumen Amerika Serikat pada bulan September (lihat global economic news), pelaku pasar obligasi global melakukan aksi jual terhadap obligasi developed maupun emerging market yang tercermin dari turunnya indeks S&P (-0.3%) dan EMBI (-0.2%) akibat kenaikan harga minyak yang berlanjut [Brent dan WTI: USD 93.9 dan 90.8 per bbl per (15/9)]. Kami memprediksi yield 10Y INDOGB masih akan naik ke rentang 6.7-6.8%, tetapi Rupiah bergerak sideways di rentang IDR 15,300-15,400 per USD hari ini.

Fixed Income News: BI terbitkan 3 seri SRBI dengan total nilai IDR 24.46tn. Sementara itu, jumlah permintaan (penawaran masuk) mencapai IDR 29.87tn. Alokasi terbesar diberikan kepada SRBI tenor 12 bulan senilai IDR 15tn dengan tingkat diskonto 6.42% (10Y INDOGB yield: 6.69%), yang selanjutnya diikuti tenor 6 bulan (IDR 6.78tn & 6.31%) dan tenor 9 bulan (IDR 2.65tn & 6.395). Apabila tingkat permintaan SRBI di lelang 20 September mendatang tetap tinggi, kami memperkirakan suplai SRBI berpotensi melebihi suplai SPN &SPNS 9M23 yang tercatat sebesar IDR 43.3tn. (Bank Indonesia)

Global Economic News: Sentimen Konsumen AS turun lebih rendah dari konsensus pada bulan September menjadi 67.7 (Aug: 69.5; Cons: 69). Hasil survei Universitas Michingan tersebut juga menunjukkan penurunan ekspektasi inflasi setahun ke depan menjadi 3.1% (Aug: & Cons: 3.5%). Hal ini memicu optimisme pasar terhadap kemungkinan The Fed tidak akan menaikkan suku bunga acuannya di 4Q23. Probabilita kenaikan suku bunga The Fed di bulan November atau Desember turun menjadi masing-masing 27% dan 33% (Prev: 36% dan 37%). Selain itu, 61% analis merasa yakin The Fed akan mulai memangkas suku bunga FFR pada bulan Januari (55% bulan Maret). (Investing)
Domestic Economic News: Penjualan mobil wholesales bulan Agustus masih terkontraksi -8.3% yoy (Jul: -6.7% yoy) menjadi 88,876 unit (Jul: 80,426; Aug 22: 96,956). Kontraksi juga berlanjut bagi penjualan kendaraan komersial sebesar -14% yoy (Jul: -19.1% yoy) menjadi 19,760 unit (Jul: 17,066; Aug 22: 22,972). Kontraksi penjualan mobil yang terus-menerus mengindikasikan pelemahan aktivitas investasi di 3Q23. (Gaikindo)

Recommendation: FR0040, FR0056, FR0059, FR0084, FR0086, FR0090, FR0094.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 18 September 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 18 September 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 18 September 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 18 September 2023 (Eng)

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