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In the last five trading days, Brent prices fell to USD 70.9/bbl (-3.9% WoW), and WTI declined to 67.8/bbl (-2.8% WoW), a lowest closing price for Brent since December 6, 2024, and for WTI since December 9, 2024. Oil prices continued their bearish trend as concerns over U.S. tariffs, which could accelerate U.S. inflation and slow growth across the continent, created headwinds for oil demand. Additionally, OPEC+ will proceed with a planned oil output increase in April.
Eight OPEC+ members have agreed to proceed with a plan to begin increasing crude oil output in April 2025. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman have agreed to reverse their 2.2mbl/d voluntary output cuts over an 18-month period, from April 2025 to September 2026.
In addition, the U.S. tendency to end the war between Russia and Ukraine may add greater pressure on oil prices. Thus, we maintain our oil price forecast at USD 72/bbl (YTD: USD 76.2/bbl). Stock-wise, MEDC remains our top pick (TP: IDR 2,200; FY25F EV/EBITDA: 5.1x), supported by resilient fundamentals and strong cash flow generation.
Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is a leading Indonesian securities brokerage firm. Established in 1997, the firm has grown to become one of the most respected and trusted financial services companies in the country. With a wide range of services and products, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a trusted partner to many investors, both institutional and individual.
The company offers a variety of financial services, including equity, debt and derivative securities brokerage services, research and portfolio management, asset management and capital market services, as well as a range of other investment solutions. Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is also a leader in providing financial education and training, and has established itself as a leading provider of investor relations services.
The company has a strong research capability and is committed to providing its clients with up-to-date and reliable market analysis and recommendations. It also has a team of experienced and knowledgeable professionals who are dedicated to providing quality service to its clients. As a result, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a preferred partner for many investors in Indonesia.
In addition to its financial services, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia also offers a range of other services, such as corporate finance and advisory services, mergers and acquisitions, and venture capital.
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