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Company Reports

31 January 2025

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Oil Weekly (24 – 30 January 2025): Avg. USD 77.3/bbl (-2.8% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Over the past 5 trading days, Brent prices plunged -2.8% WoW (from USD 79.5/bbl), and WTI plummeted -3.0% WoW (from USD 75.7/bbl) following higher-than-expected increase in US crude stockpiles on the back Trump’s plan to increase oil production, reinforcing concerns about supply-demand imbalances.
  • US crude oil stockpiles rose +3.46 Mmbbl last week, surpassing market expectations of +3.19 Mmbbl. Additionally, the 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, set to take effect in February, and China's weaker manufacturing data have added further pressure on oil prices.
  • We maintain our oil price forecast at USD 72/bbl (YTD: USD 78.4/bbl) as we anticipate sustained price pressure and potential supply increases from certain OPEC+ members. However, extended production cuts into 2025 may provide some price support. MEDC remains our top pick with target price of IDR 2,200, reflecting FY25F valuation of 5.1x EV/EBITDA.

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