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Company Reports

15 November 2024

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Oil Weekly (15 November 2024): USD 72.5/bbl (-3.2% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Between 8 – 14 November 2024, Brent prices declined -3.2% WoW (from USD 74.9/bbl), and WTI prices dropped -3.7% WoW (from USD 71.4/bbl), as China’s early November stimulus failed to boost demand from the world's second-largest oil consumer.
  • Subsiding Rafael storm in the Gulf of Mexico eased supply constraints in US. This, along with the increase in DXY to USD c.106 (+1.6% WoW), weighed on commodity prices. Furthermore, EIA projected 2025F US oil production to reach 13.53 mmbpd (+2.3% from expected 2024 production), adding further pressure on oil prices.
  • We maintain our average oil forecast at USD 80/bbl (YTD avg: USD 80.5/bbl) due to sustained price pressure and potential supply increases from certain OPEC+ members, though some upside remains from extended production cuts into 4Q24 and 2025. At this stage, MEDC remains our top pick, with a target price of IDR 2,200, reflecting FY24F valuation of 4.9x EV/EBITDA.

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