Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

17 May 2023

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Obligasi tenor pendek tetap bullish di tengah tekanan ketidakpastian global

Sesuai perkiraan kami pada awal minggu ini, bullish rally terhadap obligasi tenor pendek (2-tahun) masih berlanjut bullish, yang tercermin dari turunnya imbal hasil (yield) INDOGB 2-tahun sebesar -5 bps menjadi 5.91% serta semakin melebarnya selisih yield INDOGB 10-tahun vs 2-tahun sebesar 5 bps menjadi 52 bps kemarin (16/5). Menurut kami, pergerakan ini menunjukkan aksi antisipatif investor atas potensi pemangkasan suku bunga 7DRRR BI mulai 3Q23, meskipun kondisi pasar obligasi global dan terutama negara-negara berkembang tertekan oleh sentimen negatif dari hasil rilis data aktivitas ekonomi Tiongkok (lihat global economic news) dan negosiasi kenaikan batas plafon utang Amerika Serikat yang berkepanjangan. Kami merekomendasikan investor untuk mengambil posisi beli di instrumen tenor pendek. Kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10-tahun dan Rupiah akan terkonsolidasi dan bergerak flat hari ini dalam rentang masing-masing sebesar 6.4-6.5% dan IDR 14,750-14,850 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Kementerian Keuangan terbitkan SUN senilai IDR 15tn pada lelang SUN kemarin (16/5). Sesuai dengan prediksi kami, pemerintah membatasi suplai baru SUN di tengah permintaan yang tinggi investor, yang tercermin dari jumlah penawaran masuk sebesar IDR 65.45tn. Angka ini jauh lebih tinggi dibandingkan lelang SUN terakhir April lalu (11/4) sebesar IDR 45tn. Berdasarkan data ini, kami melihat sentimen bullish atas obligasi dalam negeri masih akan berlanjut. (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: Pemulihan ekonomi Tiongkok pasca-pandemi hilang momentum pada bulan April. Hal ini tercermin dari tingkat pertumbuhan produksi industri, penjualan ritel dan investasi aset tetap yang lebih rendah daripada ekspektasi pasar masing-masing sebesar 5.6% yoy (Mar: 3.9% yoy, Cons Apr: 10.9% yoy), 18.4% yoy (Mar: 10.6% yoy, Cons Apr: 21% yoy), dan 4.7% yoy (Mar: 5.1% yoy, Cons Apr: 5.5% yoy). Kami melihat pelemahan ini telah diantisipasi oleh investor asing melalui aksi jual obligasi pasar negara berkembang dua hari lalu (15/5) dan masih berlanjut hingga hari ini walaupun dengan intensitas yang lebih rendah. Menurut kami, hasil rilis data ini akan berdampak negatif terhadap saham-saham komoditas di IHSG. (Nikkei)

Domestic Economic News: Harga batubara acuan turun di bulan Mei menjadi USD 206.16 per metrik ton (Apr: USD 265.26 per MT). Menurut kami, penurunan ini konsisten dengan kondisi di pasar global. Harga batubara Newcastle turun -12.8% mtd menjadi USD 161 per MT. Mempertimbangkan kondisi ekonomi Tiongkok yang tumbuh lebih rendah daripada konsensus, kami memperkirakan prospek sektor batubara akan semakin tergerus. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0096, FR0097, FR0050, FR0075, FR0079, PBS007, PBS034, PBS035.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 17 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 17 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 17 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 17 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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