Research & Stock Picks

Company Reports

07 January 2025

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MIDI: 4Q24 SSSG – 07 January 2025

Strength

Solid 12M24 SSSG readings of 9.65% (12M23: 5.93%), beating the company’s mid-single digit guidance, which we attribute to positive momentum from ex-Java stores, partly driven by elevated CPO prices (YTD 2024: +30%)

 

Weakness

Alfamidi’s aggressive expansion plan (+200 stores in FY25F) could adversely affect SSSG in the short term, as new stores typically underperform during their first two years

 

Opportunity

Strong SSSG readings and double-digit earnings growth in 2024 provide buying opportunities given recent YTD market underperformance (-0.7%) leading to low P/S valuation of 0.6x

 

Threat

Indonesia’s shrinking middle class and potential decline in commodity prices due to global economic slowdown may dampen purchasing power, exerting downward pressure on SSSG

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