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Daily Report

06 June 2023

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Koreksi pasar obligasi domestik setelah libur panjang

Perpindahan portofolio obligasi dari pasar negara-negara maju ke pasar negara-negara berkembang berlanjut tadi malam (5/6) yang ditandai dengan penurunan indeks S&P untuk obligasi negara-negara maju sebesar -0.2% bersamaan dengan naiknya indeks EMBI sebesar 0.1%. Walaupun optimisme terhadap pasar obligasi negara-negara berkembang tinggi, pasar obligasi Indonesia terkoreksi kemarin. Koreksi terbesar dicatat oleh instrumen INDON yang mengalami kenaikan imbal hasil (yield) untuk seluruh tenor masing-masing 8 bps menjadi 5.08% (2-tahun), 12 bps menjadi 4.76% (5-tahun), dan 7 bps menjadi 4.77% (10-tahun). Koreksi juga dialami instrumen INDOGB dan obligasi korporasi untuk seluruh tenor. Menurut kami, koreksi ini berpotensi bersifat sementara karena performa obligasi Indonesia yang jauh lebih baik dibandingkan obligasi negara berkembang lainnya (return ICBI 5.5% ytd vs EMBI 2.4% ytd) serta dampak dari libur panjang minggu lalu. Kami memprediksi performa pasar obligasi Indonesia akan kembali membaik seiring dengan lelang SBSN hari ini. Kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10-tahun masih akan terkonsolidasi di rentang 6.3-6.4% hari ini, yang diikuti konsolidasi Rupiah dalam rentang IDR 14,800-14,900 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Kementerian Keuangan akan lakukan lelang SBSN hari ini dengan target indikatif IDR 9tn. Kami memperkirakan tingkat permintaan pada lelang SBSN hari ini akan turun dibandingkan lelang SBSN sebelumnya (23/5) yang mencatat penawaran masuk senilai IDR 54.8tn. Prediksi kami didasarkan pada kondisi lelang SBN tanggal 29 Mei yang mengalami penurunan jumlah penawaran masuk menjadi IDR 58.4tn (16/5: IDR 65.4tn). Selain itu, kami juga mempertimbangkan koreksi yang terjadi di pasar obligasi Indonesia kemarin (5/6). (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: PMI ISM sektor jasa AS melambat pada bulan Mei menjadi 50.3 (Apr: 51.9; Cons May: 52.4). Perlambatan PMI ini memperkuat ekspektasi pasar terhadap potensi terjadinya resesi ekonomi di Amerika Serikat pada 2H23. Menurut kami, hasil rilis data PMI ini merupakan berita baik bagi prospek inflasi AS ke depan. Kami meperkirakan inflasi AS akan terus melambat di bulan-bulan mendatang. (Investing)

Domestic Economic News: PMI manufaktur menurun pada bulan Mei menjadi 50.3 (Apr: 52.7). Walaupun PMI manufaktur masih berada di zona ekspansi, perlambatan aktivitas di bulan Mei disebabkan oleh turunnya permintaan baru dari dalam maupun dari luar negeri. Menurut kami, penurunan ini disebabkan kebijakan suku bunga tinggi yang diadopsi oleh bank sentral dari negara-negara maju. Perlambatan aktivitas bisa berlanjut di bulan-bulan mendatang karena potensi kenaikan terminal rate the Fed pada bulan Juli. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0098, FR0050, FR0079, FR0081, FR0040, FR0084, FR0086, PBS017.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 6 Juni 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 6 Juni 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 6 Juni 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 6 Juni 2023 (Eng)

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