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Daily Report

28 April 2023

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Konsolidasi pasar akibat munculnya skenario kenaikan suku bunga Fed lanjutan di bulan Juni

Aliran masuk dana asing ke pasar Indonesia masih berlanjut kemarin (27/4) yang menyebabkan Rupiah terapresiasi melebihi ekspektasi kami menjadi IDR 14,703 per USD. Walaupun hal ini menyebabkan IHSG berlanjut naik +0.6%, imbal hasil (yield) INDOGB 10-tahun tertahan di level 6.54%, yang mengindikasikan investor di pasar obligasi mulai berhati-hati. Menurut kami, kehati-hatian ini disebabkan oleh munculnya skenario kenaikan suku bunga Fed lanjutan sebesar 25 bps menjadi 5.5% di bulan Juni akibat kekhawatiran terhadap resiliensi inflasi inti AS. Menurut kami, ekspektasi ini masih perlu dikonfirmasi dengan rilis data inflasi PCE AS nanti malam dan rilis data pasar tenaga kerja AS bulan April Jumat depan. Berdasarkan kondisi terkini, kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10-tahun hari ini akan mengalami konsolidasi di rentang 6.5-6.6% yang juga diikuti konsolidasi Rupiah pada rentang IDR 14,700-14,800 per USD.

Fixed Income News: PGEO berencana terbitkan obligasi hijau global senilai USD 400mn. Obligasi hijau PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO) menawarkan kupon sebesar 5.15% per tahun dengan tenor 5 tahun hingga jatuh tempo di 2028. Target utama obligasi hijau PGEO adalah investor asing yang memiliki minat lebih tinggi terhadap obligasi skema hijau daripada investor domestik. (Kontan)

Global Economic News: GDP AS tumbuh lebih rendah dari ekspektasi pada 1Q23 sebesar 1.1% (4Q22: 2.6% & Cons: 2%). Pertumbuhan GDP Amerika Serikat yang lebih rendah dari ekspektasi disebabkan oleh resesi di sektor manufaktur yang berlangsung sejak November 2022. Sementara itu, resiliensi sektor jasa yang ditopang oleh kuatnya konsumsi domestik menjaga perekonomian AS tetap tumbuh positif. Walaupun ekspektasi terhadap potensi resesi di 2H23 menguat, pasar memperkirakan the Fed akan tetap menjaga posisi hawkish kebijakan moneter mereka dengan hanya memangkas suku bunga acuan sebesar 50 bps menjadi 4.75% akibat inflasi inti PCE di 1Q23 yang lebih tinggi dari consensus sebesar 4.9% yoy (4Q23: 4.4% yoy & Cons: 4.7% yoy). Sementara itu, ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga acuan the Fed di bulan Mei sebesar 25 bps menjadi 5.25% meningkat menjadi 85%. (Wall Street Journal)

Domestic Economic News: Pertumbuhan uang beredar menurun pada bulan Maret. Bank Indonesia mencatat penurunan pertumbuhan uang beredar dalam arti luas (M2) di bulan Maret menjadi 6.2% yoy (Feb: 7.9% yoy). Menurut kami, turunnya pertumbuhan jumlah uang beredar disebabkan oleh suku bunga tinggi yang juga menekan pertumbuhan kredit perbankan ke level satu digit sebesar 9.8% yoy (Feb: 10.4% yoy). (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0094, FR0095, FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0086, FR0065.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 28 April 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 28 April 2023 (Ind)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 28 April 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 28 April 2023 (Ind)

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