Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

07 July 2023

By

Kenaikan suku bunga Fed 2X25 bps menjadi skenario utama pasar, waspadai koreksi INDOGB 10Y

Pasar obligasi, saham, dan komoditas global mengalami koreksi tajam semalam karena bergesernya ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga the Fed dari 1X25 bps menjadi 2X25 bps untuk 2H23. Pergeseran ini disebabkan oleh kenaikan data PMI jasa ISM AS di bulan Juni yang diduga akan menjadi pemicu masih berlanjutnya ekspansi di pasar tenaga kerja AS (lihat global economic news). Akibatnya, indeks saham di AS turun di kisaran -1%. Sementara itu, indeks saham zona Euro terkoreksi -3%. Indeks komoditas S&P hanya terkoreksi -0.1%. Indeks obligasi global mengalami koreksi tajam sebesar -0.6% untuk indeks S&P negara-negara maju dan -0.9% untuk EMBI negara-negara berkembang. Imbal hasil (yield) UST dan Bund 10Y masing-masing meningkat 10 dan 15 bps menjadi 4.03% dan 2.63%. Akibat kenaikan yield UST 10Y yang tajam, yield spread INDOGB vs. UST 10Y turun tajam menuju 217 bps. Kami melihat kondisi ini sebagai awal koreksi tajam bagi pasar obligasi dalam negeri, terutama INDOGB 10Y. Untuk menghadapi situasi ini, kami kembali menekankan ekomendasi realokasi portofolio dari long (10Y dan 15Y) menjadi short (2Y). Kami memperkirakan yield INDOGB 10Y akan tertekan menuju rentang 6.25-6.35% hari ini, yang diikuti berlanjutnya tekanan depresiasi Rupiah dalam rentang IDR 15,100-15,200 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Pemerintah peroleh IDR 2.5tn dari penerbitan FR0065 melalui skema private placement. Transaksi penerbitan FR0065 dengan kupon bunga 6.625% dilakukan pada tanggal 27 Juni lalu dengan besaran yield 6.24%, lebih rendah dari yield pasar sebesar 6.33%). Seri FR0065 merupakan seri yang dapat diperdagangkan. (Kontan)

Global Economic News: PMI jasa ISM AS naik di luar dugaan pada bulan Juni menjadi 53.9 (May: 50.3; Cons Jun: 51). Kembali meningkatnya ekspansi sektor jasa Amerika Serikat di bulan Juni diperkirakan akan membuat pasar tenaga kerja AS kembali mengalami ekspansi. Hal ini tercermin pada rilis ADP nonfarm employment change bulan Juni yang naik melebihi ekspektasi menjadi 497,000 (May: 267,000; Cons Jun: 228,000). Akibatnya, proyeksi pasar terhadap kenaikan suku bunga Fed bergeser dari 1X25 bps menjadi 2X25 bps pada bulan Juli (92%) dan November (44%). (Wall Street Journal)

Domestic Economic News: Realisasi bea ekspor CPO 1H23 capai IDR 15.4tn. Nilai ini setara dengan 51.5% target penerimaan bea ekspor Badan Pengelola Dana Perkebunan Kelapa Sawit (BPDPKS). Target penerimaan ini krusial bagi implementasi program industrialisasi CPO melalui subsidi produksi biodiesel yang dananya mencapai IDR 146.6tn. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0040, FR0081, FR0084, FR0086, FR0089, FR0094, PBS017, PBS036.

Share This:

Highlights

Download PDF

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 7 Juli 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 7 Juli 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 7 Juli 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 7 Juli 2023 (Eng)

More Related

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 23, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 23, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 22, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic 22 July 2024

Daily Report

Jul 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 22, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 19, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 18, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 18, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 18, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 17, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 17, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 17, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 16, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 16, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 15, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic Report 15 July 2024

Daily Report

Jul 15, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 15, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 15, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 12, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 12 July 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 12, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 12, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 12, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 11, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 11, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 11, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 10, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 10, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 10, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 9, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 09, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 8, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic Report 8 July 2024

Daily Report

Jul 8, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 8, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 08, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 5, 2024

Samuel Daily Stock Technical – Jul 05, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jul 4, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 4 July 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 4, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 04, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 4, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jul 3, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 3 July 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 3, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 03, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 3, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Emiten Report

Jul 2, 2024

Telco Sector – Neutral – Disruption from Space

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 2, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – JuL 02, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 1, 2024

Samuel Quarterly Macro Report

Daily Report

Jul 1, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 1, 2024

Samuel Daily Stock Technical – JuL 01, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 28, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 28 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 28, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 28, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 28, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 27, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 27, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jun 26, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 26 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 26, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 26, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 25, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 25, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 24, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 24, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 24, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 21, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 21, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Report

Jun 20, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 20, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 19, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 19, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 19, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 14, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 14 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 14, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 14, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 14, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 13, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 13, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Mengalami Penguatan Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jun 12, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 12 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 12, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 12, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 12, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Naik Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jun 11, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 11 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 11, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 11, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 10, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic 10 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 10, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 10, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 10, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

inflasi tahunan indonesia

Daily Report

Jun 7, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 7 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 7, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 07, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 7, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 6, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 06, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 6, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

inflasi tahunan indonesia

Daily Report

Jun 5, 2024

Samuel Daily Research 5 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 5, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 05, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Emiten Report

Jun 4, 2024

Banking Sector – Overweight – 4M24 Bank-Only Results

Daily Report

Jun 4, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 4 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 4, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 04, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 3, 2024

Indonesia Manufacturing PMI: 3 June 2024

Daily Report

Jun 3, 2024

Indonesia May Inflation: 3 June 2024

Emiten Report

Jun 3, 2024

PGAS Update, BUY TP: 1,800 (from 1,300)

Daily Report

Jun 3, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 3, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 03, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 31, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 31, 2024

Daily Report

May 31, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Rebound Hari Ini

Daily Report

May 30, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report: 30 May 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 29, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 29, 2024

Daily Report

May 29, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 28, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 28, 2024

Daily Report

May 27, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 22, 2024

May 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 22, 2024

Daily Report

May 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 21, 2024

Daily Report

May 20, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 17, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 17, 2024