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Daily Report

04 May 2023

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Investor obligasi global bullish atas dovish hike the Fed

Investor obligasi global merasa yakin bahwa kenaikan suku bunga Fed tadi malam (3/5) merupakan yang terakhir, dan the Fed diperkirakan akan mulai memangkas suku bunga acuannya pada 4Q23 minimal sebesar 50 bps menjadi 4.75%. Sebagai reaksi atas hal ini, investor obligasi global melakukan aksi beli yang menyebabkan imbal hasil (yield) UST 10 tahun turun -9 bps menjadi 3.34%. Akibat penurunan ini, selisih yield antara INDOGB dan UST 10-tahun melebar menjadi 315 bps. Berkaca pada hal ini, memprediksi yield INDOGB 10-tahun akan melanjutkan penguatan hari ini ke rentang 6.4-6.5%, yang berpotensi diikuti apresiasi Rupiah ke rentang IDR 14,550-14,650 per USD akibat pelemahan indeks dolar semalam sebesar -0.6% menjadi 101.3.

Fixed Income News: DOID berencana terbitkan surat utang global senilai USD 500mn. Obligasi global PT Delta Dunia Makmur (DOID) rencananya akan dirilis di pasar Singapura untuk menutupi kewajiban pembayaran utang yang tercatat mencapai USD 947.3 mn pada akhir 2022. Juru bicara perusahaan menyatakan tindakan ini diambil untuk menjaga nilai kas yang mereka miliki. Rencananya, obligasi DOID akan diterbitkan dengan tenor 6 tahun hingga 2029 dengan tingkat bunga yang masih didiskusikan. Tindakan ini akan dilaksanakan pada 2H23 setelah DOID memperoleh restu dari Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham Luar Biasa (RUPSLB) yang akan dilaksanakan pada tanggal 8 Juni 2023. (Emitennews)

Global Economic News: The Fed naikkan suku bunga acuan FFR 25 bps menjadi 5.25%. Selain itu, Gubernur the Fed Jerome Powell juga mengirimkan sinyal untuk menghentikan kenaikan suku bunga bulan depan untuk mengevaluasi dampak kenaikan-kenaikan suku bunga sebelumnya terhadap perekonomian Amerika Serikat, terutama sektor perbankan yang terguncang oleh kasus-kasus likuidasi sejumlah bank regional. Menurut kami, the Fed akan berhenti menaikkan suku bunga mulai bulan ini, kecuali terjadi reinflasi yang sangat kuat akibat faktor-faktor eksternal yang tidak diduga. (Wall Street Journal)

Domestic Economic News: Kementerian Keuangan waspadai dampak fenomena cuaca El Nino terhadap inflasi. Untuk mengantisipasi hal ini, Kepala Badan Kebijakan Fiskal Febrio Kacaribu menekankan keberhasilan pemerintah dalam mengelola inflasi selama puasa dan Lebaran melalui kombinasi kebijakan menjaga cadangan pangan pemerintah dan operasi pasar, serta memperkuat koordinasi antara tim penanganan inflasi pusat dengan daerah. Berkaca pada pengalaman di bulan puasa dan Ramadhan, kami merasa optimis terhadap kemampuan pemerintah untuk meminimalisir dampak inflasi El Nino. (Bisnis Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0094, FR0095, FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0086, FR0065.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 4 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 4 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 4 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 4 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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