• Indonesia’s FX reserves fell to USD 148.7bn in September 2025, down from USD 150.7bn in August, marking the lowest level since July 2024. The drawdown was primarily driven by Bank Indonesia’s (BI) measures to stabilize IDR amid domestic political shocks, foreign debt repayments and stronger-for-longer U.S. yields.
• The latest figure is broadly in line with SSI’s year-end forecast of USD 149bn, suggesting further potential downside in 4Q25 as BI continues to employ a mix of spot interventions, Domestic Non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF) operations, and currency swap mechanisms to prevent excessive volatility.
• However, Indonesia’s reserves remain well-above international adequacy standards, sufficient to finance 6.2 months of imports or 6.0 months including external-debt servicing, exceeding global benchmark of around 3M and providing comfortable liquidity buffer to safeguard external stability.
• Going forward, reserves are may recover modestly in 4Q provided that commodity export receipts can strengthen (particularly from nickel, copper, and palm-oil shipments), while seasonal tourism inflows and FDI provide additional FX support. Indonesia’s trade surplus, upcoming Samurai-bond issuance and portfolio inflows linked to expectations of BI rate cut cycle should also bolster reserves.
• Nonetheless, near-term risks persist. Elevated U.S. Treasury yields, potential delays in Fed rate cut signals, and geopolitical uncertainties could sustain pressure on the IDR, prompting BI to maintain its calibrated intervention approach. Thus, BI’s balanced stance—protecting IDR stability without derailing growth momentum—will remain central to sustaining macroeconomic stability through year-end 2025.