• Better than our expectation, Indonesia’s consumer confidence rebounded sharply in November 2024, rising to 125.9 from September’s 22-month low of 121.1. This improvement marks the highest level since April 2024, signaling renewed optimism among Indonesian consumers. This reflects a typical positive seasonality, as November is well known as "Movember”, marking increased economic activities leading up to the end of the year. The gains were broad-based, with five out of six sub-indices showing significant increases, reflecting stronger sentiment towards the current and future state of the economy.
• ⁠⁠Consumer perception of current economic conditions improved significantly, with the sub-index rising by 3.6 points to 113.5. This reflects a more favourable view of the domestic economic environment, likely supported by easing inflationary pressures and resilient consumer spending. Meanwhile, the economic outlook sub-index recorded the most significant gain, climbing 5.9 points to 138.3. This sharp increase suggests growing confidence in the government’s policies and the economy’s capacity to navigate global uncertainties.
• ⁠The labor market also saw a marked improvement in consumer sentiment. The job availability sub-index surged 7.3 points to 136.8, while perception on job availability compared to six months ago increased 5.4 points to 110.1. These figures reflect heightened optimism about employment opportunities, potentially driven by seasonal hiring in sectors such as retail and services as year-end festivities approach.
• ⁠Income expectations also strengthened. The sub-index for current income rose 4.0 points to 121.9, indicating that households are feeling more financially secured in the near term. Similarly, income expectations for the next six months edged up 3.3 points to 141.7, highlighting continued optimism about financial prospects in 2024.
• ⁠Overall, the November rebound in consumer confidence suggests that Indonesian households are entering the year-end period with positive seasonal effect. However, the underlying economic conditions remain muted, as evidenced by some macroeconomic indicators—such as very low inflation and PMI contraction that continue to signal persistent challenges. These factors could pose significant obstacles to achieving the government's FY24 economic growth target of over 5% (SSI's projection: 4.9%), especially if the IDR faces renewed seasonal weakening at year-end.