Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

03 May 2023

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Flight to safety pasca-likuidasi Bank First Republic

Berdasarkan pengamatan kami, terjadi flight to safety di pasar global semalam (2/5) pasca likuidasi Bank First Republic oleh otoritas perbankan Amerika Serikat. Fenomena ini menyebabkan indeks-indeks saham di AS dan Eropa turun lebih dari -1%. Indeks komoditas S&P dan Goldman Sachs turun lebih tajam sebesar -3.7%, dipicu penurunan harga minyak mentah Brent (-5%) dan WTI (-5.3%). Sedangkan, imbal hasil (yield) UST dan Bund 10-tahun turun masing-masing sebesar -14 bps menjadi 3.42% dan -6 bps menjadi 2.26%. Harga emas global naik 1.6%. Berkaca pada hal ini, kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10-tahun menguat hari ini ke rentang 6.45-6.55%. Akan tetapi, Rupiah akan cenderung konsolidatif dalam rentang IDR 14,700-14,800 per USD akibat pergerakan indeks dolar yang flat kemarin malam.

Fixed Income News: Kementerian keuangan muktahirkan daftar dealer utama SUN. Data terbaru dari Direktorat Jenderal Pengelolaan Pembiayaan dan Risiko menunjukkan daftar dealer utama berjumlah 20 institusi yang terdiri atas 17 institusi perbankan dan 3 institusi sekuritas. Ketiga perusahaan sekuritas tersebut terdiri atas PT BRI-Danareksa Sekuritas, PT Mandiri Sekuritas, dan PT Trimegah Sekuritas. (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: Inflasi zona Euro stagnan pada bulan April. Inflasi konsumen (CPI) zona Euro naik tipis sesuai konsensus pada bulan April menjadi 7% yoy (Mar: 6.9% yoy & Cons: 7% yoy). Sedangkan, inflasi inti turun tipis menjadi 5.6% yoy masih sesuai consensus (Mar: & Cons: 5.7% yoy). Menurut pandangan kami, stagnasi inflasi zona Euro di bulan April bisa berdampak negatif terhadap prospek kebijakan suku bunga Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB). Kami memprediksi ECB masih akan mempertahankan siklus kenaikan suku bunga hingga 3Q23. (Investing)

Domestic Economic News: PMI manufaktur naik di bulan April menjadi 52.7 (Mar: 51.9). Sektor manufaktur mengalami ekspansi paling pesat sejak September 2022 karena biaya produksi yang turun cukup tajam hingga ke posisi terendah dalam 2 tahun terakhir. Hal ini menyebabkan ekspansi lapangan kerja berlanjut di bulan April. Berdasarkan hal ini, kami melihat performa ekonomi di 2Q23 masih akan tetap resilien di tengah perlambatan harga komoditas global. (S&P Global)

Recommendation: FR0094, FR0095, FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0086, FR0065.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 3 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 3 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 3 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 3 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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