Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

30 May 2023

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ECB buka peluang rate pause

Salah satu pejabat Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB), Pablo Hernandez de Cos, mengatakan siklus kenaikan suku bunga ECB sudah mendekati akhir. Pernyataan memicu aksi beli di pasar obligasi Eropa, yang ditandai dengan turunnya imbal hasil (yield) Bund 10-tahun sebesar -10 bps menjadi 2.43% semalam (29/5). Meskipun pasar Amerika Serikat tutup karena libur hari raya memorial, indeks S&P untuk obligasi negara-negara maju naik 0.2%. Kami memperkirakan euphoria positif ini akan menjalar ke pasar Asia hari ini. Pasar Indonesia yang cenderung bullish kemarin karena adanya lelang SBN berpotensi juga mendapat tambahan tenaga dari bullish rally di Eropa. Kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10-tahun akan turun ke rentang 6.35-6.45% hari ini. Sementara itu, Rupiah kemungkinan menguat ke rentang IDR 14,900-15,000 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Kementerian Keuangan memperoleh pendanaan sebesar IDR 15tn dari lelang SBN kemarin (29/5). Jumlah penawaran masuk pada lelang kemarin mencapai IDR 58.4tn, lebih rendah daripada lelang sebelumnya (16/5) sebesar IDR 65.4tn. Meskipun demikian, kami melihat hal ini sebagai indikasi masih tingginya permintaan atas obligasi. Alokasi penerbitan terbesar dicatat oleh tenor 5-tahun (IDR 4.35tn), 10-tahun (IDR 3.5tn) dan 15-tahun (IDR 2.2tn). Sedangkan, alokasi penerbitan di lelang sebelumnya didominasi oleh tenor 15-tahun (IDR 4.65tn), 10-tahun (IDR2.8tn) dan 5-tahun (IDR 2.3tn). (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: Biden dan McCarthy capai kesepakatan plafon utang pemerintah AS hingga 2025. Batas plafon utang yang disepakati antara Presiden Joseph “Joe” Biden yang mewakili partai Demokrat dan Ketua DPR AS Kevin McCarthy yang mewakili partai Republik adalah sebesar USD 31.4tn. Dengan nilai tersebut, negosiasi plafon utang tidak perlu dilakukan pada 2024 yang merupakan tahun kampanye pemilihan Presiden Amerika Serikat. Kedua belah pihak sepakat untuk tidak menaikkan anggaran non-pertahanan pada 2024 dan kenaikan sebesar 1% pada 2025. Sementara itu, nilai anggaran pertahanan 2024 akan naik sebesar 3% menjadi USD 886bn. (BBC)

Domestic Economic News: Pertumbuhan kredit perbankan turun di bulan April menjadi 8% yoy (Mar: 9.8% yoy). Penurunan paling tajam dicatat oleh kredit modal kerja menjadi 7.1% yoy (Mar: 10.1% yoy). Pertumbuhan kredit investasi turun menjadi 9.1% yoy (Mar: 10.3% yoy). Sementara itu, kredit konsumsi turun menjadi 8.6% yoy (Mar: 9.1% yoy). (Bank Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0098, FR0050, FR0079, FR0081, FR0040, FR0084, FR0086, PBS017.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 30 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 30 Mei 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 30 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 30 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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