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Daily Report

23 August 2023

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Daily Macro and Fixed Income 23 Agustus 2023

Yield INDOGB 10Y bertahan di area support teknikal

Pasar obligasi Indonesia sukses bertahan menghadapi tekanan aksi jual dari pasar global kemarin (22/8). Yield INDOGB 10Y yang sempat tertekan ke 6.7% mengalami rebound kembali ke area support teknikal dan ditutup di 6.67%. Akibatnya, indeks IDMA bergerak flat, meskipun indeks ICBI mengalami koreksi -0.3%. Melihat situasi di pasar global yang sudah mulai stabil semalam, yang ditandai dengan rebound indeks obligasi EMBI untuk negara berkembang 0.2% dan yield 10Y UST yang turun tipis -1 bps menjadi 4.32%, kami merekomendasikan posisi overweight terhadap INDOGB 10Y dan 15Y. Salah satu pertimbangan kami merekomendasikan posisi ini adalah meningkatnya dovishness di kalangan pejabat the Fed. Hal ini terlihat dari rilis risalah rapat FOMC Discount Window tadi malam yang mengindikasikan posisi dovish dari Presiden New York Fed John Williams. Kami memperkirakan yield 10Y INDOGB dan Rupiah akan mengalami konsolidasi di rentang masing-masing 6.55-6.65% dan IDR 15,300-15,400 per USD hari ini.

Fixed Income News: Tingkat permintaan terhadap obligasi primer naik tipis pada lelang SUN kemarin menjadi IDR 34.6tn (8/8: IDR 32.5tn). Kenaikan ini jauh melebihi perkiraan kami di kisaran IDR 20-25tn. Menurut kami, salah satu penyebab kenaikan permintaan di lelang SUN kemarin adalah dirilisnya instrumen obligasi baru FR0100 (10Y) dengan yield 6.72%, kupon bunga 6.625%, dan jumlah nominal (suplai) yang dimenangkan IDR 6.85tn. Selain itu, Kementerian Keuangan kembali melakukan pembatasan penerbitan SUN baru yang turun menjadi IDR 7.87tn (8/8: IDR 9.85tn). Menurut kami, tindakan ini berdampak positif dalam menjaga yield 10Y INDOGB di rentang support teknikal 6.6-6.67%. (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: Krisis politik di Thailand berakhir dengan pengangkatan perdana menteri baru, Srettha Thavisin. Pengangkatan Srettha sebagai PM merupakan kompromi antara partai oposisi yang disokong oleh mantan PM Thaksin Shinawatra, yang diturunkan melalui kudeta militer pada September 2006, dengan militer Thailand melalui proksi partai Palang Pracharath (40 kursi) dan United Thai Nation (36 kursi). Menurut kami, kompromi ini dapat berdampak positif terhadap persepsi investor asing atas stabilitas politik di Asia Tenggara, termasuk Indonesia yang akan menghadapi Pemilu pada 2024. (Nikkei)

Domestic Economic News: Pemerintah kaji opsi merger Garuda Indonesia, Citilink, dan Pelita Air. Merger ini memiliki dua tujuan, yaitu restrukturisasi kesehatan finansial Garuda Indonesia dan mendukung ekspansi industri penerbangan nasional dengan cara menaikkan ketersediaan jumlah pesawat domestik dari 550 menjadi 729. Menteri BUMN Erick Thohir mengutip keberhasilan merger Pelindo dalam menurunkan biaya logistik nasional dari 11% menjadi 23% sebagai rasionalisasi rencana merger ini. Menurut kami, merger ini baru akan dapat dilakukan setelah Pemilihan Umum 2024 selesai. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0040, FR0056, FR0084, FR0086, FR0090, PBS032, PBS036.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 23 Agustus 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 23 Agustus 2023 (Ind)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 23 Agustus 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 23 Agustus 2023 (Ind)

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