Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

• Over the past nine trading days, copper prices slipped -0.3% WoW to USD 9,034/ton, as Chinese New Year dampened trading and production activities. This was reflected in declined January copper output to 81,700 tons (-7.5% MoM) and lower industry operating rate to 80.2% (-750 bps MoM).
• However, China's February copper production is set to increase approximately +40,000 tons (+4.1% MoM) in Feb-25, bringing 2M25 production growth to +100,000 tons (+11.1% YoY), signalling strong supply recovery. In addition, industry operating rate is projected to rebound to 83.5% (+331 bps MoM) as smelter operations resume, while copper concentrate-based smelters’ utilization rates are expected to improve to 90.1% (+410 bps MoM), indicating stronger market activities.
• We maintain FY25 copper price forecast at USD 8,500/ton (YTD: USD 8,979/ton), due to concerns over China-US trade war and global economic uncertainties. Stock-wise, MDKA is our top pick with TP of IDR 1,800 (EV/EBITDA FY25: 10.9x), supported by its path to profitability and completion of the Weda Bay smelter in 4Q24.