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24 February 2025

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Copper Weekly (17 – 21 January 2025): Avg. USD 9,406/ton (+0.1% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Over the last five trading days, copper prices remained relatively high at USD 9,406/ton (+0.1% WoW), supported by strong Chinese copper inventory build-up, which increased to 357,600 tons (+31,400 tons WoW; +191,800 Mt from pre-Chinese New Year levels).
  • Secondary copper rod operating rate spiked to 30.8% (+11.8 ppt WoW; +22.5 ppt YoY), signalling increased demand. Coupled with DXY index declined at the end of the week, providing support for higher prices. However, US Jan-25 retail sales slumped -0.9% MoM, indicating potential weakness in consumption and global economic slowdown.
  • Despite high destocking levels, sluggish economic outlook could weigh on copper prices ahead. Thus, we retain 2025F price forecast at USD 8,500/ton (YTD: USD 9,104/ton). Stock-wise, MDKA remains our top pick (TP: IDR 2,000; FY25 EV/EBITDA: 10.9x), supported by profitability path helped by higher earnings on the back of Weda Bay smelter commissioning in 2025.

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