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14 October 2024

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Copper Weekly (14 October 2024): USD 9,618/ton (-1.8% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Between 07 – 11 October 2024, copper prices fell -1.8% WoW to USD 9,618/ton. Weakening global demand, particularly from China, has dragged down the market. Furthermore, the slowdown in China’s property sector and lack of significant industrial-related government stimulus led to considerable decline in global copper consumption.
  • Additionally, stronger U.S. dollar, driven by expectations of prolonged high-rate policy, has made copper more expensive for buyers, further dampening demand. High inventories in China (c.82,600 tons) have also contributed to the downward pressure on prices.
  • We maintain our average FY24 copper forecast at USD 9,200/ton (YTD: USD 9,157/ton) despite potential headwinds against China’s industrial growth amid global economic slowdown concerns. We retain MDKA as our top pick, with TP IDR 3,000 (EV/EBITDA FY24: 10.9x), thanks to its potential to reach profitability in 2024 and the anticipated completion of Weda Bay smelter in 4Q24.

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