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26 August 2024

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Coal Weekly (26 August 2024): USD 147/ton (-1.8% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Between 19 – 23 August 2024, coal prices averaged USD 147 (-1.8% WoW) as global demand declined due to the ongoing shift towards renewable energy. Major coal consumers like China and India are increasingly investing in cleaner alternatives, with China's solar capacity rising +28% in early 2024. Furthermore, the EU plans to cut 80% of coal-fired power generation by 2030. Due to all these factors, coal's share in global energy mix is expected to decline from 27% in 2021 to around 22% in 2030.
  • The industry is also facing financial & operational instability, with US coal production falling nearly 35% over the past decade and major companies like Peabody Energy filing for bankruptcy. Global investment in coal has dropped -40% since 2015 as investors continue to shifts away from coal-related assets.
  • Given ongoing concerns about potential global economic slowdown, we maintain our FY24 coal price forecast of USD 130/ton (YTD: USD 134.6/ton). Stock-wise, we prefer ADRO with TP of IDR 3,600 (FY24 P/E of 5.1x) as our top pick, primarily due to its green aluminum project set to commence in 2025.

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