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Company Reports

24 January 2025

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Coal Weekly (17 – 23 January 2025): Avg. USD 121.4/ton (+5.1% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Over the past five trading days, average coal prices rebounded to USD 121.4/ton (+5.1% WoW), marking an impressive recovery after hitting four-year low, despite steep declines in oil prices.
  • In 2025, China’s widening lead over India in coal imports, posting 2024 record of 542.7 Mt (+14.4% YoY, India’s import: 250.2 Mt, 41% of total global), is reinforcing China’s dominance in global coal markets, stabilizing prices and curbing sharper declines, despite modest 2025 projection for thermal coal demand growth (+1.7% YoY).
  • Looking ahead, we retain our coal price forecast at USD 120/t (YTD: USD 119/t), due to economic uncertainties and oversupply pressures. On the stock front, ADRO (TP IDR 3,400; FY25 P/E of 12.8x) is our top pick, primarily due to its initiative to venture towards green business as well as ADMR and SIS’ contributions to earnings. However, the new DHE policy may create headwinds for future earnings across all Indonesian coal companies.

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