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SWOT Analysis: 2025 Outlook
Strength
Sustainable coal sales volume growth for the sector with projected 3-year CAGR of +4.9%, helped by India’s strong demand outlook; robust cash reserves ensure dividend payouts amid current coal price outlook supported by slower green energy transition
Weakness
2025 average coal price is projected to decline to USD 125/ton, mainly due to global slowdown and COP29’s emission-cut advocacy (Australia targets 46% reduction by 2030), posing significant long-term challenges in demand
Opportunity
Indonesia’s potential royalty reforms could boost earnings; India’s slow progress in COP29 green financing targets may support coal prices; China’s c.58% thermal coal electricity mix to bolster demand outlook and caused further market outperformance
Threat
Global energy transition, COP29 goals, and potential slowdown in China's coal-fired power plant development threaten coal demand; these, coupled with worldwide policy changes, may caused market out-performance reversals for our coal counters
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