Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

20 November 2023

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Bullish rally pasar SBN berlanjut seiring turunnya suku bunga diskonto SRBI

Bullish rally di pasar SBN terus berlanjut pada Jumat lalu (17/11) ditandai dengan kenaikan indeks ICBI dan IDMA sebesar 0.3%. Bond trader notes kami menunjukkan penurunan yield seri FR0096 terus berlanjut mencapai 6.65% (16/11: 6.7%), yang setara dengan batas bawah JIBOR 1M (6.66%), meskipun yield 10Y INDOGB tetap bertahan di 6.95%. Sedangkan, yield 5Y maupun 2Y INDOGB turun masing-masing -7 dan -2 bps menjadi 6.65% dan 6.89%, seiring menurunnya suku bunga SRBI 12M menjadi 6.9% (lihat fixed income news). Aksi beli di pasar SBN berpeluang berlanjut minggu ini karena bullish rally yang masih berlanjut di pasar global, yang ditandai dengan kenaikan indeks obligasi EMBI untuk emerging market 0.2%. Akan tetapi, kami melihat potensi upside semakin terbatas, terutama untuk instrumen INDOGB dengan tenor 10Y yang yieldnya berada di batas JIBOR 1M. Kami memperkirakan yield 10Y INDOGB akan berfluktuasi stabil hari ini di rentang 6.7-6.9%, yang diikuti konsolidasi Rupiah di rentang IDR 15,400-15,500 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Permintaan terhadap SRBI kembali meningkat menjadi IDR 21.6tn (15/11: IDR 18.2tn). Naiknya tingkat permintaan terhadap SRBI diikuti dengan penurunan tingkat suku bunga diskonto SRBI 12M menjadi 6.9% (15/11: 6.94%). Namun, rilis SRBI baru dibatasi oleh Bank Indonesia pada level IDR 8.5tn (15/11: IDR 7tn). Walaupun suku bunga SRBI berada dalam tren menurun, kami masih mempertahankan proyeksi kenaikan suku bunga acuan 7DRRR menjadi 6.25%. (Bank Indonesia)

Global Economic News: Pertumbuhan PDB Malaysia meningkat pada 3Q23 menjadi 3.3% yoy (2Q23: 2.9% yoy; Cons: 3% yoy). Kenaikan ini disebabkan meningkatnya pertumbuhan konsumsi rumah tangga menjadi 4.6% yoy (2Q23: 4.3% yoy) dan belanja fiskal pemerintah menjadi 6.2% yoy (2Q23: 4.6% yoy). Sedangkan, pertumbuhan investasi melambat menjadi 4.5% yoy (2Q23: 5.1% yoy). Menurut kami, ada kemungkinan pemerintah Malaysia gagal mencapai target pertumbuhan PDB 4% untuk FY23, sehingga hal ini dapat mendorong Bank Sentral Malaysia (BNM) untuk tetap menahan suku bunga di 3%. (Channel News Asia)

Domestic Economic News: Survei BI indikasikan harga properti residensial terus naik di 3Q23 sebesar 1.96% yoy (2Q23: 1.92% yoy). Walaupun harga properti residensial berlanjut naik, tingkat penjualan properti masih terkontraksi -6.59% yoy (2Q23: -12.3% yoy). Hal ini konsisten dengan hasil survei indeks penjualan riil dan indeks kepercayaan konsumen yang mengindikasikan stagnasi tingkat pertumbuhan belanja rumah tangga. (Bank Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0100, FR0101.

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Highlights

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 20 November 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 20 November 2023 (Ind)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 20 November 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 20 November 2023 (Ind)

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