Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

13 May 2024

By

Samuel Weekly Macro: 1st Week of May 2024

Highlights:

 Economic Growth: Indonesia’s economy expanded by 5.11% year-onyear in Q1 2024, outperforming forecasts and maintaining strong
household consumption.
 Energy Transition: A comprehensive $85 billion renewable energy
plan includes the early retirement of coal plants and bioethanol
development.
 Rupiah & Reserves: Despite a 2.89% year-to-date depreciation, the
rupiah remains resilient, while foreign exchange reserves fell by $4.2
billion in April.
 Political Landscape: President-elect Prabowo Subianto proposed a
presidential club for discourse, while recalibrating Indonesia's
international relations, particularly with China.
 Digital Economy: SpaceX’s Starlink aims to improve Indonesian
connectivity, with LawBank Asia investing in legal tech, highlighting
digital market potential.

Overview

Indonesia's economy grew by 5.11% year-on-year in Q1 2024, driven
by strong household consumption but tempered by the limited
impact of social assistance, prompting a cautious revision of
economic growth forecasts to 4.8% for FY24. Despite a 2.89% yearto-date depreciation, the rupiah outperformed regional peers, with
Bank Indonesia prepared to stabilize the currency amid global
volatility. The unemployment rate fell by 9.89% from last year,
bolstered by stable growth. Indonesia's candidacy for OECD
membership signifies alignment with international standards, while
the Asian Development Bank projects economic growth of 5% in
2024 and 2025. Energy transition programs target renewable energy
development, including a $85 billion initiative, and bioethanol
production. Meanwhile, foreign exchange reserves fell by $4.2
billion, signaling the largest decline in 11 months. In the oil and gas
sector, Pertamina cited a rig shortage, while Freeport will export up
to 900,000 tons of copper. The Paiton Power Plant's stability was
affected by Mitsui's divestment, and Sepatu Bata closed a factory
due to declining demand. Politically, President-elect Prabowo
Subianto proposed a presidential club to foster discourse, and the
Constitutional Court dismissed electoral lawsuits, initiating political
negotiations. Prabowo's coalition advocates for an expanded
cabinet, with recalibrated relations with China on the horizon.
Internationally, Indonesia remains supportive of Palestinian
independence and aligns with the ASEAN-EU Blue Book. In the digital
economy, SpaceX’s Starlink broadband aims to improve connectivity,
while LawBank Asia’s legal tech investment advances AI. Finally,
climate change mitigation requires international cooperation, with
urban planning programs in Jakarta addressing urban challenges,
and the nation facing the hottest April in 40 years.

 

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Report May Week 1 (Eng)

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