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Economic & Fixed Income

14 May 2024

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Samuel Daily Macro: 14 May 2024

Overview
Indonesia's consumer confidence surged to 127.7 in April 2024, its highest level since May 2023, driven by the "Lebaran" effect, with festive sentiments boosting economic outlooks. All six sub-indices improved, with notable increases in current economic conditions, future income expectations, and job availability. However, the index may decline next month due to tight monetary policy, persistent inflation, and geopolitical risks. Bank Indonesia projects GDP growth above 5% in the second quarter, but remains cautious due to monetary pressures. Despite global headwinds, Indonesia's economic outlook is strong. Concerns arise over new import rules affecting value chain improvements, and significant Chinese investments continue. Indonesia's bid for OECD membership gains momentum, while plans to increase VAT to 12% aim to boost revenues. Pertamina commits to increasing oil lifting amid production declines, and the Indonesia Gas Society calls for special LNG pricing. Mubadala Energy announces a second major gas discovery, and Shell sells Singapore assets to a Glencore-Indonesian JV. PT Pertamina International Shipping acquires two VLGCs, strengthening its position in ASEAN LPG transport. Germany's interest in Indonesian nickel supports downstreaming efforts, while mining licenses for religious organizations face criticism. Global renewable electricity surpasses 30%, but Indonesia lags at 20%. Indonesia bets on electric vehicles, with Chinese manufacturers targeting its market. Land clearing for the Nusantara project faces challenges, yet Austria shows investment interest. The government seeks to boost private sector involvement in water infrastructure, and Waskita Karya consolidates with Hutama Karya for financial stability. Companies raise Rp 67.95 trillion in capital markets, and Bank Indonesia is optimistic about the rupiah strengthening below 16,000 against the US dollar. New OJK regulations require banks to increase capital to mitigate geopolitical risks. BI and UAE Central Bank sign a pact to boost local currency transactions. Rising medical claims prompt insurers and hospitals to review risk-sharing schemes, while a new crypto committee monitors the industry. Prajogo Pangestu ranks 25th on Forbes' Billionaires List, and Prabowo Subianto’s brother builds a tin plant in Batam. The closure of PT Sepatu Bata highlights challenges in labor-intensive industries, and the SOE Ministry implements a four-day workweek. Indonesia aims to capitalize on the global chocolate consumption boom as the third-largest cacao producer.

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