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Daily Report

19 May 2023

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Bullish rally pasar obligasi Indonesia diuji skenario kenaikan terminal Fed rate menjadi 5.5%

Para pelaku pasar global mulai mempertimbangkan skenario kenaikan suku bunga terminal acuan the Fed menjadi 5.5% (prev: 5.25%) karena sejumlah pernyataan dari pejabat-pejabat The Fed yang hawkish dalam beberapa hari terakhir. Presiden the Fed Dallas Lorie Logan mengusulkan kenaikan suku bunga acuan di pertemuan FOMC Juni mendatang, walaupun survei terhadap bank-bank regional Fed Dallas menunjukkan pengetatan kredit perbankan bulan ini. Sementara itu, Presiden the Fed Cleveland Loretta Mester menyatakan terbuka atas kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga Fed setelah penghentian sementara di bulan Juni. Menurut survei CME, hal ini menyebabkan 36% pelaku pasar mengantisipasi scenario kenaikan FFR 25 bps menjadi 5.5% pada bulan Juni. Dampaknya, imbal hasil (yield) UST dan Bund 10-tahun naik masing-masing 11 bps dan 9 bps menjadi 3.65% dan 2.45% dari Rabu lalu (17/5). Sementara itu, indeks dolar menguat 1% menjadi 103.6. Menurut kami, hal ini berpotensi memicu terjadinya koreksi yang cukup signifikan di pasar obligasi domestik. Kami memperkirakan yield INDOGB 10-tahun dan Rupiah akan melemah hari ini masing-masing ke rentang 6.5-6.6% dan IDR 14,900-15,000 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Pegadaian tawarkan obligasi jangka pendek senilai IDR 2tn. Obligasi PT Pegadaian terdiri atas dua seri, Seri A yang memiliki kupon sebesar 5.8-6.25% dengan periode jatuh tempo selama 370 hari, dan Seri B yang memiliki kupon sebesar 6.2-6.7% dengan periode jatuh tempo 3 tahun. Saat ini, Pegadaian memperoleh peringkat idAAA dan idAAA(sy) untuk obligasi dan sukuk dari Pefindo. (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: Pertumbuhan PDB Jepang naik melebihi ekspektasi pasar pada 1Q23 sebesar 1.6% yoy atau 0.4% qoq (4Q22: -0.1% yoy atau 0% qoq, Cons 1Q23: 0.7% yoy atau 0.1% qoq). Pertumbuhan PDB Jepang pada 1Q23 disokong oleh pertumbuhan konsumsi swasta sebesar 0.6% qoq (4Q22: 0.2% qoq, Cons 1Q23: 0.4% qoq) dan investasi sebesar 0.9% qoq (4Q22: -0.7% qoq, Cons 1Q23: -0.4% qoq). Performa ekonomi Jepang yang lebih baik dari ekspektasi menyebabkan indeks saham Nikkei 225 mengalami bullish rally dalam dua hari terakhir sebesar 2.4% menjadi 30,574. (Nikkei)

Domestic Economic News: OJK berencana kurangi batas maksimum pemberian kredit konsumsi fintech. Menurut OJK, batas maksimum yang ideal adalah sebesar IDR 500mn atau hanya 25% dari batas maksimum saat ini sebesar IDR 2bn. OJK berencana mengambil tindakan ini karena tingginya tingkat gagal bayar (non-performing loan/npl) para fintech penyalur kredit konsumsi, yakni di atas 5%. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0096, FR0097, FR0050, FR0075, FR0079, PBS007, PBS034, PBS035.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 19 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 19 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 19 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 19 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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