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26 May 2023

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BI pertahankan suku bunga acuan di tengah pengetatan indikator moneter dan perbankan

Bank Indonesia kembali mempertahankan suku bunga acuan 7DRRR di tingkat 5.75% sesuai ekspektasi. Keputusan ini didasarkan pada kuatnya momentum disinflasi dengan perkiraan inflasi umum kembali ke rentang target 3±1% pada 3Q23 dan pergolakan di pasar global yang menyebabkan pelemahan Rupiah dalam sebulan terakhir. Keputusan BI untuk tetap mempertahankan kebijakan suku bunga tinggi berdampak negatif terhadap sektor perbankan dan ekonomi Indonesia secara umum. Hal ini tercermin dari penurunan pertumbuhan kredit perbankan serta kontraksi aktivitas transaksi baik yang bersifat tunai maupun non-tunai di bulan April. Berkaca pada kondisi ini, kami mempertegas proyeksi pemangkasan suku bunga BI pada 2H23 dengan besaran 50 bps menjadi 5.25%.

Bank Indonesia kembali mempertahankan suku bunga acuan 7-day reverse repo rate (7DRRR) level 5.75% sesuai konsensus. Suku bunga fasilitas deposit dan pinjaman juga tidak berubah masing-masing di level 5 dan 6.5%. Keputusan ini didasarkan pada dua hal, yaitu masih berlanjutnya momentum disinflasi dan dalam rangka menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar Rupiah. BI memperkirakan proses disinflasi Indonesia akan berjalan sesuai proyeksi. Inflasi umum diprediksi akan kembali ke rentang target 3±1% pada 3Q23. Sementara itu, Rupiah cenderung melemah pada bulan Mei yang tercermin dari turunnya tingkat apresiasi Rupiah year-to-date dari 5.26% ytd pada waktu pengumuman RDG BI bulan April (17/4) menjadi 4.48% ytd sehari sebelum pengumuman RDG BI Mei (24/5). Depresiasi Rupiah bulan ini disebabkan oleh kondisi ekonomi global yang tidak menentu, tepatnya akibat berlarut-larutnya negosiasi kenaikan plafon utang pemerintah Amerika Serikat dan kemungkinan berlanjutnya kenaikan suku bunga kebijakan Federal Reserve pada bulan Juli.

Indikator moneter dan perbankan menunjukkan perlambatan yang signifikan, bahkan kontraksi, akibat kebijakan suku bunga tinggi, dan kami melihat hal ini sebagai sinyal kuat bagi proyeksi pemangkasan suku bunga BI mulai 3Q23. Perlambatan paling mencolok ditunjukkan oleh tingkat pertumbuhan pinjaman perbankan yang melambat menjadi 8.1% yoy pada bulan April (Mar: 9.9% yoy, lihat Chart 1). Pinjaman modal kerja mengalami penurunan yang paling besar menjadi 6.6% yoy (Mar: 10% yoy), yang selanjutnya diikuti oleh kredit konsumsi menjadi 8.7% yoy (Mar: 9.1% yoy). Sedangkan, pertumbuhan kredit investasi bertahan di level dua digit 10.1% yoy (Mar: 10.3% yoy). Bila kondisi ini berlanjut, ada potensi BI akan gagal mencapai target pertumbuhan kredit FY23 di rentang 10-12%. Selain mengalami perlambatan pertumbuhan kredit, sektor perbankan Indonesia juga mengalami kontraksi nilai transaksi non-tunai melalui jasa ATM, digital, dan kartu kredit maupun debit. Awalnya kami menduga penurunan ini disebabkan oleh efek musiman Lebaran. Akan tetapi, kontraksi jumlah uang kas yang beredar menunjukkan perlambatan transaksi terjadi secara umum (lihat Chart 2). Kami melihat fenomena ini sebagai sinyal perlambatan perekonomian Indonesia. Berkaca pada kondisi ini, kami yakin bahwa BI akan mengendurkan kebijakan suku bunganya mulai 3Q23 dengan proyeksi pemangkasan sebesar 50 bps menjadi 5.25%.

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