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Daily Report

27 April 2023

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Asing optimis dengan prospek pasar Indonesia

Pasar saham dan obligasi Indonesia bergerak positif kemarin (26/4) disebabkan oleh tingginya antusiasme asing terhadap prospek perekonomian Indonesia. Aliran masuk dana asing ke IHSG mencapai USD 122.1mn (atau IDR 1.81tn) kemarin, yang menyebabkan IHSG naik +1.3%. Meskipun data aliran masuk dana asing ke pasar obligasi masih belum tersedia, imbal hasil (yield) INDOGB 10-tahun turun sebesar -15 bps menjadi 6.52% sesuai ekspektasi kami. Kami memperkirakan aliran masuk dana asing masih akan berlanjut hari ini (27/4) seiring dengan keluarnya investor global dari pasar komoditas maupun pasar saham dan obligasi AS, yang ditandai penurunan indeks komoditas S&P-Goldman Sachs (-2%), Dow Jones (-0.7%) serta kenaikan yield UST 10-tahun sebesar +5 bps menjadi 3.45% semalam. Menurut estimasi kami, yield INDOGB 10-tahun berpotensi melanjutkan penurunan menuju rentang 6.45-6.55% hari ini dan Rupiah melanjutkan apresiasi dalam rentang IDR 14,800-14,900 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Pemerintah terbitkan SBSN seri PBS035 senilai IDR 110bn sebagai bagian dari Program Pengungkapan Sukarela. PBS035 ini dapat diperdagangkan di pasar sekunder dengan tingkat imbalan tetap sebesar 6.75%. Imbal hasil (yield) yang diberikan adalah sebesar 7.09%, lebih rendah dari yield pasar sebesar 7.3%. PBS035 memiliki tenor 19 tahun dengan periode jatuh tempo pada 15 Maret 2042. Menurut estimasi model kami, PBS035 layak dipertimbangkan sebagai instrument investasi pilihan dengan potensi upside yang cukup tinggi sebesar 58 bps. (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: DPR AS setujui proposal penambahan jumlah limit utang dengan syarat pemangkasan belanja pemerintah. Proposal tersebut disetujui oleh hampir seluruh anggota DPR Partai Republik AS, kecuali 4 orang anggota yang melawan keputusan partai. Akan tetapi, proposal ini dipastikan ditolak oleh Senat AS yang dikuasai Partai Demokrat, karena Presiden AS dari Partai Demokrat Joseph Biden tidak menghendaki pemangkasan belanja pemerintah. Walaupun begitu, Ketua DPR AS dari Partai Republik, Kevin McCarthy, berharap agar Presiden Biden bersedia memulai negosiasi politik terhadap arah kebijakan fiskal AS. (Wall Street Journal)

Domestic Economic News: Rasio utang pemerintah terhadap PDB naik pada bulan Maret  menjadi 39.17% (Feb: 39.09%). Kenaikan ini mencerminkan kenaikan nilai utang sebesar IDR 17.4tn menjadi IDR 7,879.1tn. 89% dari utang pemerintah berbentuk surat berharga negara (SBN), tepatnya senilai IDR 7,013.6tn. Menurut kami, rasio utang pemerintah masih aman karena jauh lebih rendah dari rasio utang pemerintah di tingkat global sebesar 96% pada tahun 2021. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0094, FR0095, FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0086, FR0065.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 27 April 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 27 April 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 27 April 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 27 April 2023 (Eng)

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