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SWOT Analysis of The Results (SSI: Above, Cons: Above)
Strength
Positive growth in 3Q24 earnings, driven increased interest income of USD 41.6mn (+22.0% YoY) and lower interest charges of USD 23.33mn (-15.1% YoY). NPM rose +90 bps QoQ on higher cash margins (USD 31.9/ton, +10.5% QoQ)
Weakness
Top line experienced some decline in 3Q24 as blended ASP dropped to USD 78.2/ton (-4.7% QoQ, -11.2% YoY); higher stripping ratio of 5.0x (+22.0% QoQ) increased OB removal volumes to c.98mn tons (+37.2% QoQ, +7.4% YoY)
Opportunity
Upcoming aluminum smelter (CoD: 4Q25; Capacity: 1.5 Mtpa), could bolster future earnings, with AAI spin-off raising cash and secure green financing; Earnings upgrade may drive continued market outperformance
Threat
YTD outperformance of 48.6%, combined with substantial dividends of USD 2.4-2.6bn (c.30% dividend yield), may trigger sell-off risks following dividend payout
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