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What we like: Ex-Java continued to post upbeat momentum in January 2025 with Same Store Sales Growth (SSSG) reading of 8.1% (Jan-24: 6.1%), which we attribute to stronger-than-expected commodity prices particularly in the outlying areas.
What we dislike: Lowest SSSG in the past 12 months, eroded by Jakarta areas having posted soft performance of -0.5% Jan-25 (Jan-24: 3.8%) along with Java ex-Jakarta region (1.3% in Jan-25 (Jan-24: 5.9%). We attribute this softness to weak purchasing power and slight adverse impact from store rebranding.
Upside potentials: Potential firmer-than-expected commodity prices like CPO, driven by B40 program and tight supplies, should help farmer incomes and support the performances of ACES stores in ex-Java markets to retain upbeat 2025F momentum.
Downside risks: Weak IDR and potential tax on Chinese imports may adversely affect purchasing power, potentially pressuring profitability.
Recommendation & Valuation: Despite relatively soft SSSG performance in January 2025, we retain our positive view on ACES on the back of solid ex-Java performance which should provide continued cushion on its operations. At this stage of the market cycle, we maintain our BUY rating with a TP of IDR 950/share, implying 24.2% upside potential and 1.75x P/S 2025F.
Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is a leading Indonesian securities brokerage firm. Established in 1997, the firm has grown to become one of the most respected and trusted financial services companies in the country. With a wide range of services and products, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a trusted partner to many investors, both institutional and individual.
The company offers a variety of financial services, including equity, debt and derivative securities brokerage services, research and portfolio management, asset management and capital market services, as well as a range of other investment solutions. Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is also a leader in providing financial education and training, and has established itself as a leading provider of investor relations services.
The company has a strong research capability and is committed to providing its clients with up-to-date and reliable market analysis and recommendations. It also has a team of experienced and knowledgeable professionals who are dedicated to providing quality service to its clients. As a result, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a preferred partner for many investors in Indonesia.
In addition to its financial services, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia also offers a range of other services, such as corporate finance and advisory services, mergers and acquisitions, and venture capital.
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