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1Q25 results: -13% YoY NP Growth; 47% in-line, 31% below, 22% above. The majority of companies under our coverage have released their 1Q25 results, which were weak with weighted aggregate net profit growth of -13% YoY and -1.2% QoQ. Of the 59 companies that reported, 47% met expectations, 31% missed estimates, and 22% exceeded expectations. Overall, bank results were in line with our forecasts: the big 4 banks posted 2.0% QoQ and 0.6% YoY declines. NIM compression remained the primary challenge, driven by falling assets yields, while CoF pressure persisted. However, assets quality improved, with BBNI maintaining 2% NPL ratio and BMRI at low 1.2%. Liquidity also saw slight boost, as banks reported lower LDR levels (-26bps QoQ). Conversely, sectors such as telecom, automotive and consumer posted weaker results due to declining purchasing power. Coal as well as oil & gas companies missed expectations primarily due to falling global commodity prices. However, for coal we anticipate positive catalyst from the new royalty scheme, which could increase net earnings of our coal coverage by 20-40%. In metal mining sector, nickel producers struggled as nickel prices continued their downtrend. Only NCKL and ANTM posted YoY earnings growth, with NCKL expanding capacity and ANTM benefiting from high gold prices and improved nickel ore sales following resolution of RKAB issues, resulting in strong earnings growth.
JCI to remain sideways in the near term: Held back by economic uncertainties. JCI rebounded 4.7% over the past month, primarily driven by higher domestic institutional investment, particularly from BPJS Ketenagakerjaan, which has committed to increasing its equity allocation, thereby boosting investors’ confidence. However, foreign investors continued to sell Indonesian stocks, with net outflows totaling IDR 7.8tn in April and IDR35.2tn YTD. As a result, foreign institutional holdings in JCI dropped to 38.0% as of Apr-25, compared to 38.9% at the end of 2024, while domestic institutional ownership increased to 41.6% (Dec-24: 40.5%). Despite this, foreign investment in government bonds remained robust, with net purchases of IDR 6.5tn in April, indicating growing preference for safer assets.
Retain end-2025 JCI target at 6,900; lower JCI EPS growth to 0.8% on weak 1Q results. Post-1Q25 results, we downgraded our FY25 JCI EPS growth estimate to 0.8% (prev.: 1.6%). Our fundamental base case scenario for JCI’s 2025F target remains at 6,900, implying FY25 PE of 12x (Regional Average: 12.9x). Looking ahead, outlook for JCI remains uncertain amid global trade tensions, foreign outflows, and earnings downgrades. Domestic institutions are expected to continue supporting the market, but foreign investors’ reduced equity holdings suggest cautious outlook, with ongoing preference for government bonds. Hence, our top-picks consist of defensive stocks (table 1): BBCA, TLKM, ICBP, AMRT, and JPFA. We also like dividend plays (table 2) favoring: ASII, HMSP, UNVR, PTBA, and TAPG. Finally, we have made a couple of adjustments to our alpha picks (table 3) as follows: BRMS, SSMS, RAJA, WIFI, and SSIA.
Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is a leading Indonesian securities brokerage firm. Established in 1997, the firm has grown to become one of the most respected and trusted financial services companies in the country. With a wide range of services and products, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a trusted partner to many investors, both institutional and individual.
The company offers a variety of financial services, including equity, debt and derivative securities brokerage services, research and portfolio management, asset management and capital market services, as well as a range of other investment solutions. Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is also a leader in providing financial education and training, and has established itself as a leading provider of investor relations services.
The company has a strong research capability and is committed to providing its clients with up-to-date and reliable market analysis and recommendations. It also has a team of experienced and knowledgeable professionals who are dedicated to providing quality service to its clients. As a result, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a preferred partner for many investors in Indonesia.
In addition to its financial services, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia also offers a range of other services, such as corporate finance and advisory services, mergers and acquisitions, and venture capital.
