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Economic & Fixed Income

11 May 2023

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Kembalinya bullish rally di pasar obligasi

Pasar saham global mengalami bullish rally semalam (10/5) setelah rilis data inflasi CPI Amerika Serikat yang sejalan dengan consensus (lihat global macro news). Indeks S&P untuk obligasi negara-negara maju naik 0.4%, diikuti penurunan imbal hasil (yield) UST dan Bund 10-tahun masing-masing sebesar -8 dan -6 bps menjadi 3.44% dan 2.29%. Sementara itu, pasar obligasi domestik mengalami aksi beli yang cukup kuat pada tenor 2-tahun kemarin dengan penurunan yield sebesar -8 bps menjadi 6.08%. Kami memprediksi aksi beli di pasar obligasi domestik akan meluas hari ini terutama di tenor panjang 10- dan 15- tahun. Menurut kami, yield INDOGB 10-tahun akan menguat di rentang 6.4-6.5% karena selisih yield INDOGB vs. UST 10-tahun yang sudah kembali di atas 300 bps. Rupiah diperkirakan terkonsolidasi dalam rentang IDR 14,700-14,800 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Pefindo turunkan peringkat utang WSKT menjadi idSD atau selective default. Keputusan ini dibuat karena ketidakmampuan WSKT untuk melunasi bunga kupon Obligasi Berkelanjutan V yang jatuh tempo pada akhir pekan lalu (6/5). Akibat gagal bayar tersebut, Pefindo menurunkan peringkat Obligasi Berkelanjutan V menjadi idD atau default (Prev: idCCC). Sementara itu, peringkat Obligasi Berkelanjutan III dipertahankan di idCCC karena PT Waskita Karya berhasil mendapatkan persetujuan dari pemegang obligasi untuk menunda pembayaran kupon bunga. Peringkat Obligasi III dan IV serta Sukuk Mudharabah I bertahan di idAAA karena adanya jaminan langsung dari pemerintah. (Emitennews)

Global Economic News: Inflasi CPI AS turun sesusi ekspektasi pada bulan April menjadi 4.9% yoy (Mar: & Cons: 5% yoy). Sementara itu, inflasi inti konsumen (CPI) Amerika Serikat bertahan di 5.5% yoy (Mar: 5.5% yoy & Cons: 5.6% yoy). Hasil ini memperkuat keyakinan investor di pasar obligasi terhadap skenario Fed pivot di 4Q23 dengan besaran pemotongan suku bunga potensian sebanyak 75 bps menjadi 4. 5%. Menurut kami, hal ini mungkin saja terjadi bila inflasi AS turun hingga di bawah 3% pada akhir 2023 melebihi proyeksi terakhir the Fed di bulan Maret sebesar 3.3% yoy. (Wall Street Journal)

Domestic Economic News: BI catat indeks penjualan riil Maret mencapai 215.3 (BI Forc.: 215.2) dan perkirakan naik di bulan April menjadi 241.6. Data ini menunjukkan penjualan ritel di bulan puasa turun -10% yoy dibandingkan dengan bulan puasa 2022 yang jatuh pada bulan April 2022. Sementara itu, prediksi penjualan ritel selama libur Lebaran diperkirakan lebih tinggi 3.2% yoy dibandingkan dengan peristiwa yang sama yang jatuh pada bulan Mei 2022. Menurut kami, hal ini menunjukkan bahwa konsumen lebih menahan pengeluaran selama bulan puasa dan memfokuskan belanja mereka selama momentum Lebaran di akhir April. Kesimpulan ini kami buat setelah mempertimbangkan hasil spending index sejumlah bank-bank besar di dalam negeri. (Bank Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0096, FR0097, FR0050, FR0075, FR0079, PBS007, PBS034, PBS035.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 11 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 11 Mei 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 11 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 11 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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