Strong 3Q26 future revenues backed by Starlite subscribers and IRA rollouts. For WIFI, we expect 3Q26F topline to reach IDR 1.2tn (+53.2% QoQ, +141.0% YoY) from FTTH (Starlite) expansion and FWA (IRA) rollouts, while net profit should increase to IDR140.7bn (-15.6% QoQ, +81.0% YoY). In 2Q26, revenues came in at IDR 787bn (+0.5% QoQ, +179.3% YoY primarily driven by the telco segment, which reached IDR 691bn (+17.1% QoQ, +366.4% YoY) in top line, underpinned by a growing subscriber base across its broadband business (FWA + FTTH). This will bring 1H26 revenues to IDR 1,571bn (+205.9% YoY) reaching 40.2% of our FY estimate and 42.2% of cons. 2Q26 operating profit rose to IDR 432bn (+21.8% QoQ, +136.3% YoY) with OPM improved to 55% (1Q26: 45.3%). EBITDA reached IDR 412bn (-24.7% QoQ, +88.8% YoY) with margin having declined to 52.3% (1Q26:69.8%; 2Q25: 77.4%), mainly attributable to a shift in business mix and promotional activities during the World Cup period, affecting overall ARPU at IDR70K/month in 2Q26. Thus, net profit reached IDR 167bn (+1.3% QoQ, +14.7% YoY), bringing 1H26 to IDR 331bn (+45.3% YoY), broadly in line with ours (41.9%) and cons (45.6%).
More conservative 2026F guidance amid challenging operating conditions. WIFI has adopted a more conservative target for its FWA business, guiding for 1mn subscribers in 2026F (previous: 3mn), as both internal and external issues weighed on the overall FWA rollouts. The company nonetheless maintained its three-year subscriber target of c.8mn by 2028F. On the FWA business, following the Feb-26 launch of the Internet Rakyat (IRA) brand, WIFI recorded 513k subscribers across 902 BTS on air (FY26F target: 5,500 sites), with a take-up rate of ~57% in 1H26. Nonetheless, we view IRA as a lucrative business expansion given its scalable deployment addresses Indonesia's low fiber penetration (~30%) and its affordable pricing of IDR100k/month suits current domestic purchasing power amid challenging macro conditions. In the FTTH business, WIFI also slightly toned down its FY26F subscriber target to 2.1mn (previous: 2.3mn), while 1H26 home connects reached 1.85mn (+377% YoY), with the take-up rate maintained at ~61%. The company therefore expects combined FWA and FTTH subscribers to reach 3.5mn in 2026F. In Jul-26, WIFI also launched three new plans catering to the mid-to-high-end segment: Starlite Prime (FTTH), Starlite Combo (FTTH + FWA) and Starlite Super (FTTH, WiFi 7), priced from IDR168k/month to IDR250k/month, while offering materially cheaper yield (IDR/Mbps) at ~85% discount to peers. We believe these superior product offerings should further boost customer acquisition going forward.
Undervaluation and strong growth ahead: BUY with TP of IDR 5,200 (+165%). We reiterate BUY rating on WIFI with TP of IDR 5,200 (165% upside), reflecting 9.3x 2027F EV/EBITDA, which is undemanding (15% discount to the industry average excl MORA– Fig.4). We expect FWA monetization and further FTTH developments to expand its footprint across Indonesia, securing potential customer base over the medium term. Key risks: 1) lower-than-expected subscriber acquisition, 2) weaker purchasing power, and 3) stretched balance sheet on elevated interest rates.
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