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10 March 2025

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Nickel Weekly (3 – 7 March 2025): Avg. USD 15,815/ton (+2.6% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Over the past five trading days, average nickel prices climbed to USD 15,815/ton (+2.6% WoW), driven by strong demand from China’s stainless-steel mills as production resumed post-holiday. The uptick in production activity was reflected in China’s February stainless steel output, which rose +0.1% MoM and +15% YoY.
  • Additionally, China’s March refined nickel production is projected to increase +13.6% MoM and +29.2% YoY, supported by rising EV battery demand, which is expected to reach 1 TWh in 2025 (2024: 894 GWh). However, market risks remain, as US tariff policies may introduce further volatility.
  • Despite relatively positive outlook earlier this year, oversupply concerns and global economic uncertainties are likely to persist. Thus, we maintain our FY25 nickel price forecast at USD 15,000/ton (YTD: USD 15,381/ton). NCKL remains our top pick (TP: IDR 850; FY25 P/E: 7.3x), supported by anticipated earnings growth from capacity expansions and industry-low cash costs.

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