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Company Reports

07 February 2025

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Coal Weekly (31 Jan – 06 Feb 2025): Avg. USD 116.2/ton (-0.2% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Over the past five trading days, average coal prices remained flattish at USD 116.2/ton (-0.2% WoW), peaking at USD 118.8/t on 3 February. Coal market found support from China’s 15% tariff on US coal imports, effective 10 February 2025. The move, a retaliation against US tariffs on Chinese goods, raised concerns over global coal supply disruptions, briefly boosting prices.
  • However, prices may face downward pressure as Indonesia raises its 2025 coal production target to 735 Mt (+4.0% YoY), while Australia’s December coal exports climbed to 7.7 Mt (+15.4% MoM). Additionally, China’s 2025 coal output is expected to grow +1.5% YoY to 4.82 billion tons, and Mongolia’s 2024 coal exports to China surged to 83 million tons, up from 70 million tons in 2023, amplifying concerns of global supply glut.
  • Given these conflicting market signals, we cut our 2025 coal price forecast from USD 120/t to USD 115/t (YTD: USD 118.2/t). On the stock front, ADRO (TP IDR 3,400; FY25 P/E of 12.8x) remains our top pick, backed by its expansion into green energy and earnings contributions from ADMR and SIS.

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