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SWOT Analysis of The Results (SSI: Below, Cons: Below)
Strength
Gold cash margin rose to USD 1,455/oz due to robust ASP of USD 2,407/oz on strong commodity price; robust cash margins drove higher gold segment EBITDA to USD 40.4mn (+40% QoQ, -28% YoY), offsetting MDKA’s overall EBITDA drop
Weakness
3Q24 net loss was attributable to lower GPM of 5.1% (-490 bps QoQ, -600 bps YoY) due to NPI cash margins dropped to USD 1,264/ton (+1.4% QoQ, -30.1% YoY), negative HGNM cash margins of USD -469/ton (vs. USD 1,832/ton in 2Q24), and FX loss amounting to USD 34.6 mn
Opportunity
MDKA is able to capitalize its 13.8Mt limonite resources (largest in the world) through direct selling to HPAL at a premium due to domestic limonite shortage; Expected gold price rally >USD 2,500/oz should serve as additional positive catalyst
Threat
NPI revenue (42.4% of sales) will continue to be under pressure due to weak ASP driven by oversupply issue and lower China demand on lack of stimulus; High mining cost will also persist on ores deficit and high energy cost causing persistent YTD underperformance
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