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In the last five trading days, Brent prices slightly rose +0.7% WoW to USD 73.4/bbl, and WTI prices inched up +0.6% WoW to USD 69.3/bbl. Market expectations suggest Saudi Arabia is likely to extend production cuts following recent decline in prices. These cuts are now expected to continue until April 2025 from January previously, which should provide some price support for oil.
However, demand outlook remains weak as Asia’s Jan-Nov 2024 oil imports fell -1.4% YoY to 26.54 mmbopd. Furthermore, OPEC+ cut China's 2024 oil demand forecast to 450 mbopd, down from 580 mbopd reported last month. For 2025, OPEC+ reduced the projection to 310 mbopd from 410 mbopd, signaling further price pressure.
We maintain our oil price forecast at USD 80/bbl (YTD avg: USD 80.4/bbl), factoring in sustained price pressure and potential supply increases from OPEC+ members, though there is some upside potential from extended production cuts into 1Q25. MEDC remains our top pick, with target price of IDR 2,200, reflecting FY24F valuation of 4.9x EV/EBITDA.
Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is a leading Indonesian securities brokerage firm. Established in 1997, the firm has grown to become one of the most respected and trusted financial services companies in the country. With a wide range of services and products, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a trusted partner to many investors, both institutional and individual.
The company offers a variety of financial services, including equity, debt and derivative securities brokerage services, research and portfolio management, asset management and capital market services, as well as a range of other investment solutions. Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is also a leader in providing financial education and training, and has established itself as a leading provider of investor relations services.
The company has a strong research capability and is committed to providing its clients with up-to-date and reliable market analysis and recommendations. It also has a team of experienced and knowledgeable professionals who are dedicated to providing quality service to its clients. As a result, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a preferred partner for many investors in Indonesia.
In addition to its financial services, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia also offers a range of other services, such as corporate finance and advisory services, mergers and acquisitions, and venture capital.
