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30 October 2024

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HEAL: BUY (Maintain) – TP: IDR 1,800 – 3Q24 Results

Strength

In 3Q24, outpatient revenue rose +9.2% QoQ on the back of positive volumes (+11.3% QoQ; +10.0% YoY); revenue per-inpatient days saw an uptick to IDR 2mn in 3Q24 (+1.6% QoQ; -0.1% YoY) thanks to higher treatment intensity

 

Weakness

3Q24 GPM declined to 35.3% (2Q24: 37.9%) and EBITDA margin fell to 27.7% (2Q24: 29.2%), mainly due to additional opex related to new hospitals opened in YTD-24 (IKN, Pasuruan, Madiun, Rumbai)

 

Opportunity

Four new hospitals commence operations in YTD-24, boosting patient traffic; potential increase in contribution from COB should enhance profitability onwards; YTD underperformance provides buying opportunity

 

Threat
Potential surge in salary expenses due to the hiring of foreign doctors; elevated USD/IDR exchange rate may lead to higher medicine and medical supply costs (c. 35-40% of COGS), pressuring future margins

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