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28 October 2024

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Copper Weekly (28 October 2024): USD 9,449/ton (-0.03% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • Between 21 – 25 October 2024, copper prices held steady at USD 9,449/ton     (-0.03% WoW), as supply concerns in the US and strong global demand for copper concentrate were balanced out by surging China’s copper inventories.
  • China reported considerable increase in its copper inventory to 156,500 mt YTD (+5,800 mt WoW, +88,500 mt YoY), primarily due to large influx of imported copper, with Shanghai (67.0%), Guangdong (24.0%), and Jiangsu (9.1%) as the main contributors to the rise.
  • We maintain our average FY24 copper forecast at USD 9,200/ton (YTD: USD 9,171/ton) despite potential headwinds against China’s industrial growth amid global economic slowdown concerns. We retain MDKA as our top pick, with TP IDR 3,000 (EV/EBITDA FY24: 10.9x), thanks to its potential to reach profitability in 2024 and the anticipated completion of Weda Bay smelter in 4Q24.

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