Research & Stock Picks

Company Reports

11 October 2024

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Oil Weekly (11 October 2024): USD 78.2/bbl (+6.3% WoW)

Recent Catalysts Driving the Price

  • In 04 – 10 October 2024, Brent prices jumped +6.3% WoW (from USD 73.8/bbl), while WTI prices spiked +6.9% WoW (from USD 70.0/bbl). Despite lack of sustained stimulus from China, escalating tensions in the Middle East have helped keep prices at relatively high levels.
  • Markets and governments are closely monitoring Israel’s potential response to Iran’s recent attacks, particularly whether Iran's oil infrastructure will be targeted. If such attacks were to occur, traders project Brent prices to rise USD 3-5/bbl. In addition, Hurricane Milton in Florida, which caused about a quarter of fuel stations in the state to run out of gasoline, has further supported oil prices.
  • Nevertheless, we maintain our average oil forecast at USD 80/bbl (avg YTD: USD 81.2/bbl) due to sustained price pressure and possible oil supply boost from Libya, though some upside persists from potential production cuts in 4Q24 and 2025. At this stage, we retain MEDC as our top pick, with target price of IDR 2,200, reflecting FY24F valuation of 4.9x EV/EBITDA.

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